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Serie A

Referee: G Manganiello

Fiorentina

S T U T U

0–3

Full-time

Napoli

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 63%

53%

72%

Points per game

1,9

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

53%

44%

Both score Ø 41%

53%

28%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

0,9

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,13 xG 1,64

48% Possession 52%

14 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 5. · Napoli 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	18	13	2	3	+23	+17.4	41
2	Napoli	18	13	2	3	+15	+11.8	41
3	Inter	17	12	4	1	+30	+18.9	40
4	Lazio	18	11	2	5	+8	+10.6	35
5	Fiorentina	17	9	5	3	+16	+7.9	32
6	Juventus	18	7	11	0	+15	+11.9	32
7	Bologna	17	7	7	3	+4	+4.7	28
8	Milan	17	7	6	4	+9	+10.7	27
9	Udinese	18	7	3	8	-5	-8.5	24
10	Roma	18	5	5	8	+0	+1.2	20
11	Empoli	19	4	8	7	-4	-9.4	20
12	Torino	18	5	5	8	-5	-7.6	20
13	Genoa	18	4	7	7	-11	-9.3	19
14	Parma	18	4	6	8	-9	-12.9	18
15	Como	18	4	6	8	-10	+0.2	18
16	Verona	18	6	0	12	-18	-13.0	18
17	Lecce	18	4	4	10	-20	-10.7	16
18	Venezia	19	3	5	11	-14	-11.6	14
19	Cagliari	18	3	5	10	-15	-5.7	14
20	Monza	18	1	7	10	-9	-6.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	8	7	0	1	+14	+8.2	21
2	Napoli	9	7	0	2	+7	+9.6	21
3	Inter	9	6	2	1	+11	+7.6	20
4	Lazio	9	6	2	1	+5	+7.0	20
5	Fiorentina	8	5	2	1	+8	+7.8	17
6	Milan	9	4	4	1	+9	+7.6	16
7	Juventus	10	3	7	0	+6	+8.5	16
8	Roma	9	5	0	4	+8	+5.6	15
9	Bologna	8	3	4	1	+4	+6.3	13
10	Udinese	9	4	1	4	-2	-4.1	13
11	Como	8	3	3	2	-1	+2.3	12
12	Lecce	9	3	3	3	-8	-0.6	12
13	Venezia	9	3	2	4	-1	+2.0	11
14	Parma	10	3	2	5	-2	-4.6	11
15	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-10	-3.3	9
16	Verona	9	3	0	6	-11	-4.5	9
17	Torino	8	2	2	4	-3	-5.9	8
18	Empoli	9	1	4	4	-5	-3.5	7
19	Genoa	10	0	6	4	-7	-4.9	6
20	Monza	9	0	3	6	-6	-3.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	8	6	2	0	+19	+11.2	20
2	Atalanta	10	6	2	2	+9	+9.1	20
3	Napoli	9	6	2	1	+8	+2.1	20
4	Juventus	8	4	4	0	+9	+3.4	16
5	Fiorentina	9	4	3	2	+8	+0.0	15
6	Lazio	9	5	0	4	+3	+3.5	15
7	Bologna	9	4	3	2	+0	-1.6	15
8	Empoli	10	3	4	3	+1	-5.9	13
9	Genoa	8	4	1	3	-4	-4.4	13
10	Torino	10	3	3	4	-2	-1.6	12
11	Milan	8	3	2	3	+0	+3.1	11
12	Udinese	9	3	2	4	-3	-4.5	11
13	Verona	9	3	0	6	-7	-8.5	9
14	Monza	9	1	4	4	-3	-3.0	7
15	Parma	8	1	4	3	-7	-8.3	7
16	Como	10	1	3	6	-9	-2.0	6
17	Cagliari	8	1	2	5	-5	-2.4	5
18	Roma	9	0	5	4	-8	-4.4	5
19	Lecce	9	1	1	7	-12	-10.0	4
20	Venezia	10	0	3	7	-13	-13.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.