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Championship

Referee: David Webb

Derby

S T T T U

0–3

Full-time

Swansea

U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,5

1,5

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

2,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,70 xG 3,00

47% Possession 53%

8 Shots 23

0 Shots on target 12

6 Blocked shots 6

9 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 6

5 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 18. · Swansea 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.5	6
2	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.7	6
3	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	-2.2	6
4	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.2	5
5	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.1	4
6	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.5	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.7	4
8	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.2	4
9	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.9	4
10	Bolton	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.7	4
11	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.3	3
12	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
13	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.2	3
14	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
15	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
16	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
17	West Ham	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.2	1
18	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
19	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
20	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	-3.4	1
21	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0
22	Lincoln	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
23	Preston	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.9	0
24	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
2	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
3	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
4	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
5	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
6	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
7	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
8	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
9	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
10	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
11	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
12	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
13	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
14	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
15	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
16	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
17	Wrexham	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.1	1
18	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.1	0
19	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	+2.2	0
20	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
21	Preston	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
22	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
23	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.1	0
24	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
2	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
3	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
4	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.1	3
5	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.9	3
6	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.1	3
7	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-2.2	3
8	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
9	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
10	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
11	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
12	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
13	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
14	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
15	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
16	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
17	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
18	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
19	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
20	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
21	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
22	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.4	0
23	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
24	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.