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Championship

Referee: James Bell

Derby

T U T S T

0–1

Full-time

West Brom

S T T U S

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby West Brom

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

20%

60%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

80%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

40%

80%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,27 xG 0,38

67% Possession 33%

13 Shots 4

3 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 3

4 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Derby 21. · West Brom 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	6	3	2	1	+7	+3.3	11
2	West Ham	6	3	2	1	+5	+1.2	11
3	Swansea	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.2	11
4	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.4	10
5	QPR	5	3	1	1	+3	+2.0	10
6	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	+2	-4.2	10
7	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+2	-1.9	10
8	Charlton	5	3	1	1	-1	-4.4	10
9	Millwall	5	3	0	2	+2	+2.3	9
10	Sheffield United	6	2	3	1	+0	-1.7	9
11	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+3	+4.5	8
12	Watford	6	2	2	2	-1	-2.6	8
13	Wrexham	6	1	4	1	+2	+1.4	7
14	Birmingham	5	1	4	0	+1	+0.7	7
15	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-1	-3.8	7
16	Norwich	5	2	0	3	+0	+0.4	6
17	Portsmouth	5	2	0	3	-1	-0.2	6
18	Blackburn	6	1	2	3	-2	-2.1	5
19	Lincoln	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.4	5
20	Cardiff	6	0	4	2	-3	+3.0	4
21	Derby	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.6	4
22	Bolton	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.7	4
23	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-6	-0.2	3
24	Preston	6	1	0	5	-6	+2.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	3	3	0	0	+8	+3.9	9
2	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.4	7
3	Watford	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.4	7
4	West Ham	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.2	6
5	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.7	6
6	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.6	6
7	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.9	6
8	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
9	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.9	5
10	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
11	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.6	4
12	Sheffield United	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.5	4
13	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
14	Birmingham	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.0	3
15	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.6	3
16	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.2	3
17	Bolton	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.1	3
18	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.6	3
19	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.1	3
20	Preston	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.2	3
21	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.0	2
22	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.9	2
23	Lincoln	3	0	2	1	-2	+2.6	2
24	Derby	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.6	7
2	QPR	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.3	6
3	Swansea	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.0	6
4	Wrexham	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.5	5
5	West Ham	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.0	5
6	Sheffield United	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.2	5
7	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
8	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.4	4
9	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
10	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.8	4
11	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
12	Lincoln	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
13	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
14	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.0	3
15	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
16	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.6	3
17	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.6	2
18	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.3	2
19	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.4	1
20	Watford	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.3	1
21	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.2	1
22	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-5	-5.4	1
23	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.6	1
24	Preston	3	0	0	3	-3	+1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

23. Jan -26 Derby – West Brom 1–1 13. Sep -25 West Brom – Derby 0–1 12. Aug -25 West Brom – Derby 1–1 21. Apr -25 West Brom – Derby 1–3 26. Dec -24 Derby – West Brom 2–1

Match report

Derby West Brom

10′

🟨 Harry Whitwell

16′

⚽ Aune Heggebo 0–1

J. Morgan

26′

🟨 Brayann Pereira

34′

🟥 Brayann Pereira

37′

🔁 Nolan Galves

↦ Harry Whitwell

Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 🔁

↦ Dion Sanderson

45′

🔁 Rabby Nzingoula

↦ Aune Heggebo

Joe Ward 🔁

↦ Ryan Hedges

45′

Half-time 0–1

52′

🔁 Conor Townsend

↦ Nolan Galves

Henrik Wendel Meister 🔁

↦ D. Ozoh

63′

82′

🟨 J. Morgan

Corey Blackett-Taylor 🔁

↦ Eiran Joe Cashin

84′

Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Derby

4-2-3-1

J. Widell Zetterström G

S. Langås D

D. Sanderson D

E. Cashin D

C. Taylor D

D. Ozoh M

A. Mowatt M

B. Clark M

S. Szmodics M

R. Hedges M

M. Fuseini F

Bench (9)

33 C. Blackett-Taylor

29 O. Fraulo

22 M. Johnston

19 H. Meister

24 R. Nyambe

15 L. Salvesen

31 J. Vickers

23 J. Ward

42 Raymond Offor

Coach: J. Eustace

West Brom

4-4-2

M. O’Leary G

B. Pereira D

N. Phillips D

G. Campbell D

C. Styles D

Harry Whitwell M

J. Molumby M

O. Diakité M

I. Price M

A. Heggebø F

J. Morgan F

Bench (9)

42 B. Cisse

15 Tobias Christopher Collyer

25 N. Galves

2 C. Mepham

7 F. Myhre

20 R. Nzingoula

9 B. Stewart

22 C. Townsend

26 K. Tunde

Coach: J. Morrison

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

2,93

🔒

Pinnacle 3,51 Bet365 3,50 Betano 3,50 Betfair 3,50 Dafabet 3,50 Superbet 3,50 BetVictor 3,40 10Bet 3,35 1xBet 3,32 Marathonbet 3,32 888Sport 3,25 William Hill 3,25 Unibet 3,20 SBO 3,17

3,37

🔒

Dafabet 3,45 Pinnacle 3,43 1xBet 3,40 Superbet 3,40 BetVictor 3,40 Marathonbet 3,40 Betano 3,35 Unibet 3,35 10Bet 3,30 Betfair 3,30 Bet365 3,25 888Sport 3,25 William Hill 3,25 SBO 3,14

B ✓

2,34

🔒

Pinnacle 2,18 Bet365 2,15 Betano 2,15 Dafabet 2,15 888Sport 2,15 William Hill 2,15 10Bet 2,12 1xBet 2,12 Unibet 2,12 Superbet 2,12 Betfair 2,10 BetVictor 2,10 Marathonbet 2,10 SBO 2,09

Over/under goals

O1,5

1,30

🔒

10Bet 1,33 Betano 1,33 Superbet 1,32 BetVictor 1,32 Pinnacle 1,31 Bet365 1,30 Unibet 1,30 888Sport 1,30 Betfair 1,29 1xBet 1,27 Marathonbet 1,27

U1,5 ✓

3,30

🔒

Pinnacle 3,62 Bet365 3,50 Betfair 3,50 Superbet 3,40 Betano 3,35 10Bet 3,30 Unibet 3,25 888Sport 3,20 1xBet 3,18 Marathonbet 3,18 BetVictor 3,00

O2,5

1,88

🔒

Pinnacle 2,06 SBO 2,00 Bet365 2,00 Betano 2,00 Superbet 2,00 1xBet 1,98 Unibet 1,98 Marathonbet 1,98 10Bet 1,95 888Sport 1,95 BetVictor 1,92 Betfair 1,90

U2,5 ✓

1,85

🔒

Betfair 1,87 Betano 1,85 SBO 1,84 Pinnacle 1,84 10Bet 1,83 Superbet 1,82 1xBet 1,80 Bet365 1,80 Marathonbet 1,80 BetVictor 1,76 Unibet 1,75 888Sport 1,75

O3,5

3,40

🔒