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Championship

Referee: John Busby

Derby

U T S T T

1–2

Full-time

Birmingham

T S U U T

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,7

3,8

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

59% Possession 41%

18 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 9

7 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

10 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 22. · Birmingham 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Ham	7	4	2	1	+11	+1.2	14
2	West Brom	6	4	1	1	+3	-2.8	13
3	Southampton	6	3	2	1	+7	+3.3	11
4	Swansea	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.2	11
5	QPR	6	3	2	1	+3	+2.6	11
6	Charlton	6	3	2	1	-1	-5.0	11
7	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.4	10
8	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	+2	-4.2	10
9	Millwall	5	3	0	2	+2	+2.3	9
10	Norwich	6	3	0	3	+1	-0.3	9
11	Sheffield United	6	2	3	1	+0	-1.7	9
12	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+3	+4.5	8
13	Watford	6	2	2	2	-1	-2.6	8
14	Birmingham	6	1	4	1	+0	+1.3	7
15	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-1	-3.8	7
16	Wrexham	7	1	4	2	-4	+1.4	7
17	Portsmouth	5	2	0	3	-1	-0.2	6
18	Blackburn	6	1	2	3	-2	-2.1	5
19	Lincoln	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.4	5
20	Cardiff	6	0	4	2	-3	+3.0	4
21	Bolton	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.7	4
22	Derby	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.7	4
23	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-6	-0.2	3
24	Preston	6	1	0	5	-6	+2.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Ham	4	3	0	1	+10	+2.2	9
2	Southampton	3	3	0	0	+8	+3.9	9
3	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.4	7
4	Watford	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.4	7
5	Charlton	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.2	7
6	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.7	6
7	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.6	6
8	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.4	6
9	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.9	6
10	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.9	5
11	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
12	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.6	4
13	Sheffield United	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.5	4
14	Birmingham	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.0	3
15	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.6	3
16	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.2	3
17	Bolton	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.1	3
18	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.6	3
19	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.1	3
20	Preston	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.2	3
21	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.0	2
22	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.9	2
23	Lincoln	3	0	2	1	-2	+2.6	2
24	Derby	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.6	7
2	QPR	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.9	7
3	Swansea	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.0	6
4	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+0	-3.2	6
5	West Ham	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.0	5
6	Sheffield United	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.2	5
7	Wrexham	4	1	2	1	-3	+0.5	5
8	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.4	4
9	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.3	4
10	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
11	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.8	4
12	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
13	Lincoln	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
14	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.0	3
15	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
16	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.6	3
17	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.6	2
18	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.3	2
19	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.4	1
20	Watford	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.3	1
21	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.2	1
22	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-5	-5.4	1
23	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.6	1
24	Preston	3	0	0	3	-3	+1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.