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Championship

Referee: R Madley

Derby

S S S S T

0–0

Full-time

Burnley

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 40/40 matches

Win Ø 43%

28%

58%

Points per game

1,0

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

40%

25%

Both score Ø 37%

48%

25%

Average goals

2,4

1,7

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,92 xG 0,78

30% Possession 70%

9 Shots 8

1 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 21. · Burnley 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	40	23	15	2	+43	+16.5	84
2	Leeds	40	23	13	4	+51	+46.4	82
3	Sheffield United	37	24	6	7	+24	+13.4	78
4	Sunderland	37	21	11	5	+24	+13.9	74
5	Middlesbrough	40	17	9	14	+12	+12.2	60
6	Bristol City	38	15	14	9	+9	+5.0	59
7	West Brom	40	13	18	9	+12	+9.8	57
8	Coventry	38	16	7	15	+1	+16.9	55
9	Millwall	40	14	12	14	-2	+2.4	54
10	Watford	40	15	8	17	-5	-6.2	53
11	Norwich	40	13	13	14	+6	+10.3	52
12	Blackburn	40	15	7	18	-1	-2.3	52
13	Sheffield Weds	40	14	10	16	-7	-1.7	52
14	Preston	40	10	18	12	-7	-2.7	48
15	Swansea	40	13	9	18	-10	-3.0	48
16	QPR	40	11	13	16	-8	-6.8	46
17	Portsmouth	40	12	9	19	-15	-13.9	45
18	Oxford	40	11	12	17	-16	-23.7	45
19	Hull	40	11	11	18	-8	-5.7	44
20	Stoke	40	10	13	17	-12	-14.5	43
21	Derby	40	11	8	21	-10	-7.4	41
22	Cardiff	40	9	14	17	-20	-14.4	41
23	Luton	40	10	9	21	-25	-7.9	39
24	Plymouth	40	8	13	19	-36	-36.5	37

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	20	15	4	1	+38	+28.5	49
2	Burnley	20	11	9	0	+23	+10.6	42
3	Sunderland	19	12	6	1	+17	+13.9	42
4	Sheffield United	18	13	2	3	+14	+13.2	41
5	Bristol City	19	11	6	2	+15	+8.9	39
6	Watford	20	11	3	6	+5	+0.5	36
7	West Brom	20	9	8	3	+12	+10.6	35
8	Portsmouth	20	10	5	5	+11	+3.1	35
9	Middlesbrough	20	10	5	5	+8	+8.1	35
10	Oxford	20	10	5	5	+3	-5.3	35
11	Norwich	20	9	7	4	+18	+12.5	34
12	Coventry	19	10	3	6	+8	+10.0	33
13	Blackburn	20	10	3	7	+7	+5.0	33
14	Preston	20	7	11	2	+6	+5.2	32
15	Millwall	20	9	4	7	+4	+7.0	31
16	Derby	20	9	3	8	+8	+2.0	30
17	Swansea	20	8	5	7	+5	+6.6	29
18	Stoke	20	7	8	5	+4	-3.5	29
19	QPR	20	7	7	6	+3	+3.3	28
20	Luton	20	7	7	6	+1	+6.9	28
21	Plymouth	20	7	7	6	-1	-6.1	28
22	Cardiff	20	7	4	9	-2	-0.9	25
23	Sheffield Weds	20	5	7	8	-2	+4.2	22
24	Hull	20	4	7	9	-4	+4.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	20	12	6	2	+20	+6.0	42
2	Sheffield United	19	11	4	4	+10	+0.3	37
3	Leeds	20	8	9	3	+13	+17.9	33
4	Sunderland	18	9	5	4	+7	-0.1	32
5	Sheffield Weds	20	9	3	8	-5	-5.9	30
6	Middlesbrough	20	7	4	9	+4	+4.1	25
7	Hull	20	7	4	9	-4	-10.1	25
8	Millwall	20	5	8	7	-6	-4.6	23
9	West Brom	20	4	10	6	+0	-0.8	22
10	Coventry	19	6	4	9	-7	+6.9	22
11	Bristol City	19	4	8	7	-6	-4.0	20
12	Blackburn	20	5	4	11	-8	-7.3	19
13	Swansea	20	5	4	11	-15	-9.7	19
14	QPR	20	4	6	10	-11	-10.1	18
15	Norwich	20	4	6	10	-12	-2.1	18
16	Watford	20	4	5	11	-10	-6.7	17
17	Preston	20	3	7	10	-13	-7.9	16
18	Cardiff	20	2	10	8	-18	-13.6	16
19	Stoke	20	3	5	12	-16	-11.1	14
20	Derby	20	2	5	13	-18	-9.4	11
21	Luton	20	3	2	15	-26	-14.8	11
22	Oxford	20	1	7	12	-19	-18.3	10
23	Portsmouth	20	2	4	14	-26	-17.1	10
24	Plymouth	20	1	6	13	-35	-30.4	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.