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Championship

Referee: Michael Oliver

Burnley

T S U S S

4–1

Full-time

Derby

S U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

2,7

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,3

This season — Championship · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 47%

48%

46%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

52%

38%

Both score Ø 45%

48%

42%

Average goals

2,4

2,2

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

0,9

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

39% Possession 61%

9 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 11

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 4. · Derby 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	27	17	5	5	+29	56
2	Middlesbrough	27	17	4	6	+23	55
3	Brighton	27	13	10	4	+6	49
4	Burnley	27	13	9	5	+18	48
5	Derby	26	12	10	4	+15	46
6	Birmingham	28	13	7	8	+9	46
7	Sheffield Weds	27	12	9	6	+11	45
8	Ipswich	28	12	9	7	+2	45
9	Cardiff	28	10	11	7	+4	41
10	Brentford	28	11	6	11	+1	39
11	Nott'm Forest	28	9	11	8	+5	38
12	Wolves	28	10	8	10	-1	38
13	Reading	28	9	8	11	+1	35
14	QPR	28	8	11	9	+0	35
15	Preston	28	8	11	9	-2	35
16	Leeds	28	8	11	9	-4	35
17	Huddersfield	28	8	8	12	-2	32
18	Blackburn	27	6	12	9	+0	30
19	Fulham	28	6	10	12	-5	28
20	Milton Keynes Dons	28	7	5	16	-18	26
21	Rotherham	28	7	4	17	-15	25
22	Bristol City	28	5	9	14	-23	24
23	Charlton	28	4	9	15	-32	21
24	Bolton	28	3	11	14	-22	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	13	11	2	0	+26	35
2	Middlesbrough	14	10	2	2	+17	32
3	Sheffield Weds	13	9	3	1	+15	30
4	Brighton	14	9	2	3	+4	29
5	Burnley	13	8	3	2	+14	27
6	Cardiff	14	7	6	1	+8	27
7	Derby	14	7	5	2	+12	26
8	Nott'm Forest	14	6	5	3	+8	23
9	Reading	14	6	5	3	+7	23
10	Birmingham	14	7	2	5	+2	23
11	Ipswich	14	5	6	3	+3	21
12	QPR	14	4	8	2	+5	20
13	Brentford	14	6	2	6	-2	20
14	Huddersfield	14	5	4	5	+6	19
15	Milton Keynes Dons	14	6	1	7	-6	19
16	Preston	14	4	6	4	-1	18
17	Bolton	14	3	8	3	+0	17
18	Rotherham	14	5	2	7	-2	17
19	Wolves	14	4	5	5	-2	17
20	Leeds	14	4	5	5	-3	17
21	Blackburn	13	3	7	3	+3	16
22	Fulham	14	4	4	6	+0	16
23	Charlton	14	3	6	5	-7	15
24	Bristol City	14	3	5	6	-7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ipswich	14	7	3	4	-1	24
2	Birmingham	14	6	5	3	+7	23
3	Middlesbrough	13	7	2	4	+6	23
4	Burnley	14	5	6	3	+4	21
5	Hull	14	6	3	5	+3	21
6	Wolves	14	6	3	5	+1	21
7	Derby	12	5	5	2	+3	20
8	Brighton	13	4	8	1	+2	20
9	Brentford	14	5	4	5	+3	19
10	Leeds	14	4	6	4	-1	18
11	Preston	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Nott'm Forest	14	3	6	5	-3	15
13	Sheffield Weds	14	3	6	5	-4	15
14	QPR	14	4	3	7	-5	15
15	Blackburn	14	3	5	6	-3	14
16	Cardiff	14	3	5	6	-4	14
17	Huddersfield	14	3	4	7	-8	13
18	Fulham	14	2	6	6	-5	12
19	Reading	14	3	3	8	-6	12
20	Bristol City	14	2	4	8	-16	10
21	Rotherham	14	2	2	10	-13	8
22	Milton Keynes Dons	14	1	4	9	-12	7
23	Charlton	14	1	3	10	-25	6
24	Bolton	14	0	3	11	-22	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.