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Championship
Referee: Gavin Ward
Burnley
U T U T U
1–2
Full-time
Bristol City
T T U S S
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Bristol City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,7
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
75%
75%
Both score Ø 88%
100%
75%
Average goals
3,8
3,3
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
2,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%
8 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 8
2 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 7
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Burnley 24. · Bristol City 8.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Swansea 4 3 1 0 +6 +1.4 10
2 QPR 4 3 1 0 +4 +2.0 10
3 Charlton 5 3 1 1 -1 -4.4 10
4 Southampton 5 2 2 1 +5 +3.1 8
5 Wolves 4 2 1 1 +3 +3.9 7
6 Middlesbrough 4 2 1 1 +2 +3.4 7
7 West Brom 4 2 1 1 +1 -1.9 7
8 Bristol City 4 2 1 1 +1 -4.2 7
9 Sheffield United 4 1 3 0 +1 -0.5 6
10 Birmingham 4 1 3 0 +1 +1.2 6
11 Stoke 5 2 0 3 -1 -1.7 6
12 Millwall 4 2 0 2 -2 +2.3 6
13 Wrexham 4 1 2 1 +2 +1.6 5
14 West Ham 4 1 2 1 +1 +0.5 5
15 Blackburn 5 1 2 2 -1 -3.3 5
16 Watford 4 1 2 1 -1 -1.5 5
17 Lincoln 5 1 2 2 -2 +0.4 5
18 Bolton 4 1 1 2 -1 -1.1 4
19 Derby 4 1 1 2 -2 -2.6 4
20 Cardiff 4 0 3 1 -1 +0.8 3
21 Norwich 4 1 0 3 -2 +0.4 3
22 Portsmouth 4 1 0 3 -3 -0.2 3
23 Preston 5 1 0 4 -5 +0.8 3
24 Burnley 4 0 2 2 -5 -0.4 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Burnley Bristol City
Armando Broja 🔁
↦ Andréas Hountondji
45′
Anel Ahmedhodzic 🔁
↦ Hjalmar Ekdal
45′
Half-time 0–0
Hjalmar Ekdal 🟨
47′
1–0 Aaron Ramsey
Reo Hatate
56′
61′
🔁 Yu Hirakawa
↦ Jed Wallace
61′
🔁 Dominic Ballard
↦ Gibson Osahumen Yah
Zeki Amdouni 🔁
↦ Reo Hatate
63′
Jacob Bruun Larsen 🔁
↦ Largie Ramazani
70′
72′
🔁 Sam Greenwood
↦ Scott Twine
72′
🔁 George Tanner
↦ Cameron Pring
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Burnley

4-2-3-1
1 M. Weiß G
2 K. Walker D
18 H. Ekdal D
3 Max Alleyne D
22 O. Sonne D
5 R. Hatate M
29 J. Laurent M
17 A. Hountondji M
21 A. Ramsey M
8 U. Raghouber M
19 L. Ramazani F
Bench (9)
15 A. Ahmedhodžić
11 Z. Amdouni
27 A. Broja
7 J. Bruun Larsen
30 L. Castell
37 G. Coudert
99 Igor
28 H. Mejbri
14 C. Roberts

Coach: N. Hayen

Bristol City

4-2-3-1
1 S. Tickle G
3 C. Pring D
16 R. Dickie D
2 L. Eissat D
21 Rio Cardines D
12 J. Knight M
8 J. Williams M
17 J. Wallace M
10 S. Twine M
27 G. Yah M
9 L. Tolaj F
Bench (9)
19 G. Tanner
4 A. Randell
14 T. Horvat
7 Y. Hirakawa
20 S. Greenwood
38 N. Eile
40 B. Collins
23 D. Ballard
99 E. Adebayo

Coach: M. Skubala

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,87
U
3,63
B ✓
3,93
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
1,25
U1,5
3,62
O2,5 ✓
1,80
U2,5
1,95
O3,5
2,89
U3,5 ✓
1,36
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
1,69
BLS nei
2,05

Referee

Gavin Ward · 49 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
18,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.