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League Cup

Referee: Andrew Kitchen

Burnley

S S S T S

2–1

Full-time

Derby

U T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cambridge United	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.1	6
2	Accrington ST	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.9	6
3	Reading	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.3	6
4	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.1	3
5	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
6	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.8	3
7	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
8	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
9	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
10	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
11	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
12	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
13	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
14	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
15	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
16	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
17	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
18	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
19	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
20	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
21	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
22	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
23	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
24	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
25	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
26	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.8	3
27	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
28	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
29	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
30	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
31	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
32	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
33	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
34	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
35	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
36	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
37	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
38	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
39	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
40	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
41	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
42	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
43	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
44	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
45	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
46	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
47	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
48	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
49	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
50	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
51	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
52	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
53	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
54	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
55	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
56	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
57	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
58	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
59	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
60	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
61	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
62	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
63	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
64	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
65	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
66	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
67	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
68	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
69	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
70	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
71	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
72	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
73	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
74	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Accrington ST	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.9	6
2	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
3	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
4	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
5	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
6	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
7	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
8	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
9	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
10	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
11	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
12	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
13	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
14	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
15	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
16	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
17	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
18	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
19	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
20	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
21	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
22	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
23	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
24	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
25	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
26	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
27	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
28	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
29	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
30	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
31	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
32	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
33	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
34	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
35	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
36	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
37	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
38	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
39	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.1	3
2	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.8	3
3	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
4	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
5	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
6	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
7	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
8	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
9	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
10	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
11	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
12	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
13	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
14	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
15	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
16	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
17	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
18	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
19	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
20	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
21	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
22	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
23	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
24	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
25	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
26	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
27	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
28	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
29	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
30	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
31	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
32	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
33	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
34	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
35	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
36	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
37	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
38	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
39	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.