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Superligaen

Referee: Aydin Uslu

Aarhus

T U S S S

4–1

Full-time

Fredericia

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aarhus Fredericia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Superligaen · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,56 xG 0,51

64% Possession 36%

29 Shots 9

10 Shots on target 5

10 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 1

0 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aarhus 4. · Fredericia 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	FC Copenhagen	6	4	1	1	+6	+4.4	13
2	Midtjylland	6	3	3	0	+8	+1.0	12
3	Brondby	6	4	0	2	+3	+3.5	12
4	Aarhus	6	3	2	1	+5	+1.8	11
5	Fredericia	6	3	1	2	+1	-1.6	10
6	Viborg	7	3	0	4	-1	-1.1	9
7	Odense	6	2	2	2	-5	+2.4	8
8	Randers FC	6	2	1	3	-2	-2.4	7
9	Sonderjyske	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.3	7
10	Nordsjaelland	6	2	0	4	-4	-1.3	6
11	Silkeborg	6	2	0	4	-5	+2.3	6
12	Vejle	7	1	1	5	-3	-5.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Midtjylland	4	2	2	0	+6	+2.3	8
2	Sonderjyske	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.9	7
3	Brondby	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.4	6
4	Odense	3	2	0	1	-1	+2.1	6
5	Fredericia	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.9	6
6	Vejle	4	1	1	2	+1	-2.5	4
7	FC Copenhagen	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.9	4
8	Aarhus	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.6	4
9	Silkeborg	2	1	0	1	+0	+3.9	3
10	Viborg	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.4	3
11	Randers FC	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.2	3
12	Nordsjaelland	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	FC Copenhagen	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.5	9
2	Aarhus	3	2	1	0	+5	-1.8	7
3	Brondby	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.1	6
4	Viborg	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.2	6
5	Fredericia	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
6	Midtjylland	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.3	4
7	Randers FC	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.2	4
8	Nordsjaelland	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.9	3
9	Silkeborg	4	1	0	3	-5	-1.5	3
10	Odense	3	0	2	1	-4	+0.2	2
11	Vejle	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.3	0
12	Sonderjyske	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.