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Ligue 1

Referee: G Angoula

Paris FC

U U S T T

3–2

Full-time

Metz

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris FC Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,0

Conceded

3,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,21 xG 1,84

51% Possession 49%

24 Shots 14

9 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

14 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Paris FC 17. · Metz 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.3	9
2	Lille	3	2	1	0	+7	+3.3	7
3	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.2	6
4	Lens	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.1	6
5	Strasbourg	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.7	6
6	Toulouse	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.3	6
7	Angers	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.8	4
8	Rennes	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.0	4
9	Marseille	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
10	Monaco	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.5	3
11	Nice	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.6	3
12	Nantes	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.8	3
13	Auxerre	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.2	3
14	Lorient	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.9	3
15	Brest	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.8	1
16	Le Havre	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.3	0
17	Paris FC	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.8	0
18	Metz	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Angers	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
2	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
3	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
4	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
5	Nice	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.6	3
6	Lens	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.9	3
7	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
8	Lille	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
9	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
10	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
11	Auxerre	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
12	Nantes	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.5	3
13	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.1	3
14	Lorient	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.0	3
15	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
16	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
17	Metz	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
2	Lille	2	1	1	0	+6	+1.6	4
3	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
4	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
5	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
6	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
7	Rennes	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.7	1
8	Marseille	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
9	Monaco	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
10	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
11	Angers	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
12	Lorient	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
13	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
14	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
15	Metz	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
16	Paris FC	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.8	0
17	Brest	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.