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Ligue 1

Referee: F Letexier

Lyon

T T S S S

1–0

Full-time

Marseille

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,7

4,2

Scored

1,8

2,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

0,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,04 xG 0,77

58% Possession 42%

17 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lyon 3. · Marseille 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.3	9
2	Lille	3	2	1	0	+7	+3.3	7
3	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.2	6
4	Monaco	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.2	6
5	Lens	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.1	6
6	Strasbourg	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.3	6
7	Toulouse	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.3	6
8	Angers	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.8	4
9	Rennes	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.0	4
10	Marseille	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
11	Le Havre	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.6	3
12	Nice	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.3	3
13	Nantes	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.8	3
14	Auxerre	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.2	3
15	Paris FC	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.4	3
16	Lorient	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.9	3
17	Brest	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.8	1
18	Metz	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
2	Angers	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
3	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
4	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
5	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.8	3
6	Nice	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.6	3
7	Lens	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.9	3
8	Paris FC	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
9	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
10	Lille	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
11	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
12	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
13	Auxerre	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
14	Nantes	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.5	3
15	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.1	3
16	Lorient	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.0	3
17	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
18	Metz	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
2	Lille	2	1	1	0	+6	+1.6	4
3	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
4	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
5	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
6	Strasbourg	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
7	Rennes	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.7	1
8	Marseille	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
9	Monaco	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
10	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
11	Angers	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
12	Lorient	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
13	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
14	Nice	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.9	0
15	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
16	Metz	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.6	0
17	Paris FC	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.8	0
18	Brest	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.