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Superligaen

Referee: L Graagaard

Midtjylland

U S S U S

3–3

Full-time

Fredericia

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Midtjylland Fredericia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

4,7

Scored

2,5

3,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Superligaen · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,7

3,0

Scored

3,0

1,3

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,32 xG 2,29

54% Possession 46%

16 Shots 18

7 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 9

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Midtjylland 5. · Fredericia 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	FC Copenhagen	4	3	0	1	+4	+5.3	9
2	Randers FC	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.4	7
3	Brondby	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.9	6
4	Viborg	4	2	0	2	+0	-2.1	6
5	Midtjylland	3	1	2	0	+4	-0.5	5
6	Aarhus	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.5	5
7	Vejle	3	1	1	1	+2	-1.4	4
8	Odense	3	1	1	1	-2	+0.7	4
9	Sonderjyske	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.5	4
10	Nordsjaelland	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.5	3
11	Fredericia	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.8	3
12	Silkeborg	3	0	0	3	-6	-1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Midtjylland	2	1	1	0	+4	+1.2	4
2	Vejle	2	1	1	0	+4	+0.2	4
3	Sonderjyske	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
4	Odense	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
5	FC Copenhagen	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.5	3
6	Brondby	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.1	3
7	Randers FC	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
8	Viborg	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
9	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	+2.3	1
10	Nordsjaelland	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
11	Silkeborg	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.7	0
12	Fredericia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	FC Copenhagen	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
2	Aarhus	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.7	4
3	Randers FC	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.3	4
4	Fredericia	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.7	3
5	Brondby	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
6	Nordsjaelland	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.3	3
7	Viborg	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
8	Midtjylland	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.7	1
9	Odense	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.3	1
10	Vejle	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
11	Silkeborg	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.6	0
12	Sonderjyske	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.