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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luís Godinho

Casa Pia

U S T T T

0–1

Full-time

Moreirense

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,3

4,0

Scored

0,0

1,0

Conceded

3,3

3,0

Goal diff per game

-3,3

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,77 xG 0,28

63% Possession 37%

14 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 1

3 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 17. · Moreirense 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+9	+5.4	12
2	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+7	+4.3	10
3	Arouca	4	3	0	1	+4	-1.5	9
4	Santa Clara	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.5	8
5	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.1	7
6	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.5	6
7	Estrela	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.8	5
8	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+7	+5.0	4
9	Nacional	4	1	1	2	+0	-3.3	4
10	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-1	+4.7	3
11	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.5	3
12	Alverca	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.1	2
13	Academico Viseu	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.2	2
14	Famalicao	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.8	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.8	1
16	Estoril	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.1	1
17	Casa Pia	3	0	0	3	-10	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.4	6
3	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
4	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.5	6
5	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
6	Maritimo	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
7	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
8	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	+4.6	3
9	Alverca	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.4	2
10	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
11	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
12	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
13	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.0	1
14	Famalicao	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
15	Academico Viseu	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.4	0
16	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.5	0
17	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-7	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.0	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
3	Estrela	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
4	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.7	4
5	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+7	+2.7	3
6	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.9	3
7	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.0	3
8	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	-4.2	3
9	Academico Viseu	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.8	2
10	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-1	-3.2	1
11	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.1	1
12	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
13	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
14	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
15	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.7	0
16	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.