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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gonçalo Neves

Casa Pia

T S U T U

1–3

Full-time

Estoril

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 35%

37%

33%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

40%

67%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

53%

Average goals

2,4

2,9

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,88 xG 1,62

41% Possession 59%

8 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

3 Offside 5

12 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Casa Pia 8. · Estoril 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	31	23	6	2	+58	+48.9	75
2	Benfica	31	24	3	4	+55	+46.3	75
3	Sp Braga	31	19	7	5	+26	+15.1	64
4	Porto	31	19	5	7	+29	+21.8	62
5	Guimaraes	31	13	12	6	+12	+11.5	51
6	Santa Clara	31	15	5	11	+2	+9.6	50
7	Famalicao	31	11	11	9	+6	-5.3	44
8	Casa Pia	30	11	8	11	-3	-9.3	41
9	Estoril	30	10	9	11	-10	-15.4	39
10	Moreirense	31	9	9	13	-9	-4.2	36
11	Nacional	31	9	6	16	-14	-9.3	33
12	Arouca	31	8	9	14	-17	-6.9	33
13	Rio Ave	31	8	9	14	-18	-18.8	33
14	Gil Vicente	31	8	8	15	-12	-9.0	32
15	Estrela	31	7	8	16	-19	-13.7	29
16	AVS	31	4	12	15	-32	-21.8	24
17	Farense	31	4	9	18	-22	-19.4	21
18	Boavista	31	5	6	20	-32	-20.3	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	1	1	+40	+30.1	43
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	2	1	+24	+21.8	38
3	Porto	15	11	3	1	+23	+21.1	36
4	Guimaraes	16	9	5	2	+11	+8.4	32
5	Sp Braga	15	9	3	3	+14	+14.9	30
6	Santa Clara	16	9	2	5	+3	+10.6	29
7	Famalicao	16	6	7	3	+7	+5.5	25
8	Casa Pia	15	7	4	4	+4	-0.9	25
9	Moreirense	16	6	7	3	+1	-1.7	25
10	Nacional	15	7	2	6	-3	-2.7	23
11	Rio Ave	15	5	7	3	-1	-4.5	22
12	Estoril	15	6	4	5	-3	-5.8	22
13	Gil Vicente	16	5	4	7	-1	-0.2	19
14	Estrela	16	5	4	7	-5	-4.7	19
15	Arouca	15	4	5	6	-6	-3.8	17
16	AVS	15	3	6	6	-9	-10.2	15
17	Farense	15	2	2	11	-14	-4.1	8
18	Boavista	16	1	3	12	-22	-7.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	11	4	1	+34	+27.2	37
2	Sp Braga	16	10	4	2	+12	+0.2	34
3	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+15	+16.2	32
4	Porto	16	8	2	6	+6	+0.7	26
5	Santa Clara	15	6	3	6	-1	-0.9	21
6	Guimaraes	15	4	7	4	+1	+3.1	19
7	Famalicao	15	5	4	6	-1	-10.8	19
8	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-7	-9.7	17
9	Casa Pia	15	4	4	7	-7	-8.4	16
10	Arouca	16	4	4	8	-11	-3.1	16
11	Boavista	15	4	3	8	-10	-12.8	15
12	Farense	16	2	7	7	-8	-15.3	13
13	Gil Vicente	15	3	4	8	-11	-8.8	13
14	Moreirense	15	3	2	10	-10	-2.4	11
15	Rio Ave	16	3	2	11	-17	-14.3	11
16	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-11	-6.5	10
17	Estrela	15	2	4	9	-14	-9.0	10
18	AVS	16	1	6	9	-23	-11.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.