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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa

Nacional

S T T S U

2–0

Full-time

Estoril

T U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,03 xG 0,86

59% Possession 41%

20 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nacional 8. · Estoril 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
3	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
4	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
5	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
6	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
7	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
8	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
9	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
10	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
11	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
12	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
13	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
14	Academico Viseu	2	0	1	1	-1	-3.1	1
15	Alverca	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.4	1
16	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.9	0
18	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
2	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
3	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
4	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
5	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
6	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
7	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
8	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
9	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
10	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
11	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.8	0
12	Academico Viseu	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
13	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
2	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
3	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
4	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
5	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.4	1
6	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
7	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
8	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
9	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
10	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
11	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
12	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
13	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.