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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Vallecano

S T T U T

3–2

Full-time

Santander

U S U T S

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Santander

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,7

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,0

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

2,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

49% Possession 51%

16 Shots 9

10 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

2 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vallecano 18. · Santander 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+10	+9.4	9
2	Real Madrid	4	3	0	1	+7	+6.1	9
3	Betis	4	3	0	1	+0	-1.4	9
4	Alaves	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.7	7
5	Osasuna	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.9	7
6	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+1	-2.0	7
7	Ath Bilbao	4	2	0	2	+1	-1.1	6
8	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.6	6
9	La Coruna	3	1	2	0	+2	-1.7	5
10	Levante	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.2	4
11	Santander	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.0	4
12	Sociedad	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.4	4
13	Espanol	3	1	0	2	+1	-1.4	3
14	Getafe	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.8	3
15	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.2	2
16	Celta	4	0	2	2	-3	-4.4	2
17	Valencia	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.3	1
18	Vallecano	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.6	1
19	Elche	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.5	1
20	Malaga	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.5	6
2	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+5	+5.7	6
3	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.1	6
4	Betis	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.1	6
5	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+2	-2.0	4
6	La Coruna	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
7	Santander	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.9	4
8	Sociedad	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.1	4
9	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.4	4
10	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.8	3
11	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.4	3
12	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.8	3
13	Getafe	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
14	Sevilla	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.3	3
15	Vallecano	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
16	Malaga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
17	Valencia	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
18	Celta	2	0	0	2	-3	-4.5	0
19	Elche	1	0	0	1	-5	-3.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+5	+3.7	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
3	Osasuna	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.5	3
4	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.0	3
5	Real Madrid	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
6	Ath Madrid	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
7	Betis	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.2	3
8	Celta	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.1	2
9	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.2	2
10	Alaves	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
11	La Coruna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
12	Elche	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
13	Levante	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.7	1
14	Espanol	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
15	Santander	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
16	Valencia	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.0	0
17	Vallecano	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.0	0
18	Sociedad	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.4	0
19	Getafe	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.7	0
20	Malaga	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.