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Super League

Referee: Urs Schnyder

Basel

T T S U S

0–1

Full-time

Lugano

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Basel Lugano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 12/11 matches

Win Ø 52%

58%

45%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

75%

64%

Both score Ø 61%

58%

64%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,03 xG 2,02

57% Possession 43%

17 Shots 20

8 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 10

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Basel 2. · Lugano 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	13	10	1	2	+12	-2.9	31
2	Basel	12	7	1	4	+7	+7.6	22
3	St. Gallen	11	7	0	4	+12	+2.9	21
4	Young Boys	12	5	4	3	-1	-2.7	19
5	Sion	12	5	3	4	+3	+4.8	18
6	Luzern	13	4	5	4	+4	-0.3	17
7	Lugano	11	5	1	5	-1	+2.7	16
8	Zurich	13	5	1	7	-6	+3.4	16
9	Lausanne	12	4	3	5	+4	+4.5	15
10	Servette	13	4	2	7	-5	+0.4	14
11	Grasshoppers	13	3	4	6	-9	-10.5	13
12	Winterthur	13	1	3	9	-20	-9.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	6	4	1	1	+5	-3.9	13
2	Lugano	6	4	1	1	+5	+1.3	13
3	St. Gallen	6	4	0	2	+10	+4.1	12
4	Basel	5	4	0	1	+8	+10.0	12
5	Young Boys	6	3	2	1	+5	+3.3	11
6	Lausanne	6	3	0	3	+6	+5.6	9
7	Zurich	7	3	0	4	-3	+3.5	9
8	Grasshoppers	6	2	2	2	+3	-2.0	8
9	Servette	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.3	8
10	Sion	6	2	1	3	+1	-0.2	7
11	Luzern	6	1	3	2	+4	+2.6	6
12	Winterthur	7	1	2	4	-4	-1.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	7	6	0	1	+7	+1.0	18
2	Sion	6	3	2	1	+2	+5.0	11
3	Luzern	7	3	2	2	+0	-2.9	11
4	Basel	7	3	1	3	-1	-2.4	10
5	St. Gallen	5	3	0	2	+2	-1.2	9
6	Young Boys	6	2	2	2	-6	-6.0	8
7	Zurich	6	2	1	3	-3	-0.1	7
8	Lausanne	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.1	6
9	Servette	6	2	0	4	-3	+0.1	6
10	Grasshoppers	7	1	2	4	-12	-8.5	5
11	Lugano	5	1	0	4	-6	+1.4	3
12	Winterthur	6	0	1	5	-16	-8.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.