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Super League

Referee: L Fähndrich

Basel

U S S U T

1–2

Full-time

Lugano

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Basel Lugano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,7

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

5,0

3,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

3,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,42 xG 0,96

41% Possession 59%

22 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 4

10 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Basel 9. · Lugano 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sion	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.5	6
2	Servette	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.4	6
3	Zurich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
4	Lugano	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
5	Winterthur	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
6	Lausanne	2	1	0	1	-3	-2.4	3
7	Grasshoppers	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
8	Luzern	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
9	Basel	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
10	St. Gallen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
11	Yverdon	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
12	Young Boys	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sion	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.1	3
2	Servette	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.5	3
3	Lausanne	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
4	Lugano	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
5	Winterthur	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
6	Grasshoppers	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
7	Luzern	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
8	Young Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
9	Yverdon	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Zurich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
2	Servette	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
3	Sion	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
4	Luzern	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
5	Basel	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
6	Grasshoppers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
7	St. Gallen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
8	Young Boys	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.5	0
9	Lausanne	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.