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Ligue 1

Referee: Stephanie Frappart

Metz

T T T S S

2–1

Full-time

Nice

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

2,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 32%

18%

45%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

55%

Both score Ø 50%

36%

64%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,5

Conceded

2,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,58 xG 0,95

49% Possession 51%

9 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 3

12 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 17. · Nice 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	12	8	1	3	+17	+10.4	25
2	Lens	12	8	1	3	+10	+3.1	25
3	Paris SG	11	7	3	1	+12	+8.7	24
4	Lille	11	6	2	3	+10	+7.8	20
5	Lyon	11	6	2	3	+4	+7.0	20
6	Monaco	12	6	2	4	+3	+7.3	20
7	Strasbourg	11	6	1	4	+6	+7.8	19
8	Rennes	12	4	6	2	+2	-2.6	18
9	Nice	11	5	2	4	+0	-7.6	17
10	Toulouse	12	4	4	4	+2	+0.4	16
11	Paris FC	12	4	2	6	-3	-1.3	14
12	Le Havre	12	3	5	4	-4	+0.5	14
13	Brest	12	2	4	6	-7	-1.6	10
14	Nantes	12	2	4	6	-7	-11.5	10
15	Angers	11	2	4	5	-7	-10.5	10
16	Lorient	12	2	4	6	-12	-2.3	10
17	Metz	11	2	2	7	-16	-9.6	8
18	Auxerre	11	2	1	8	-10	-6.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	6	5	1	0	+15	+11.0	16
2	Lens	6	5	0	1	+9	+7.0	15
3	Lille	6	4	1	1	+7	+6.5	13
4	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+6	+4.9	13
5	Nice	6	4	1	1	+5	-1.3	13
6	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+3	+6.5	13
7	Strasbourg	5	4	0	1	+9	+9.4	12
8	Lyon	5	4	0	1	+5	+6.3	12
9	Rennes	6	3	2	1	+5	+2.7	11
10	Toulouse	6	2	3	1	+3	+2.8	9
11	Le Havre	6	2	3	1	+2	+5.8	9
12	Lorient	6	2	3	1	+0	+0.4	9
13	Angers	5	2	2	1	+1	-2.4	8
14	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	+0	+1.5	7
15	Brest	6	1	3	2	-1	+3.3	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-2	-0.6	6
17	Metz	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.1	5
18	Nantes	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	3	2	1	+6	+3.8	11
2	Lens	6	3	1	2	+1	-3.9	10
3	Marseille	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.6	9
4	Lyon	6	2	2	2	-1	+0.7	8
5	Lille	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.3	7
6	Monaco	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.8	7
7	Toulouse	6	2	1	3	-1	-2.4	7
8	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.7	7
9	Rennes	6	1	4	1	-3	-5.3	7
10	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	-3	-2.8	7
11	Nantes	6	1	3	2	-1	-5.4	6
12	Le Havre	6	1	2	3	-6	-5.3	5
13	Nice	5	1	1	3	-5	-6.3	4
14	Brest	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.9	4
15	Metz	6	1	0	5	-14	-8.5	3
16	Angers	6	0	2	4	-8	-8.1	2
17	Auxerre	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.4	1
18	Lorient	6	0	1	5	-12	-2.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.