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La Liga

Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera

Vallecano

U S S T S

0–0

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,3

Scored

2,5

1,8

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 64%

36%

91%

Points per game

1,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

36%

73%

Both score Ø 46%

36%

55%

Average goals

2,4

3,3

Scored

1,1

2,4

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,20 xG 0,98

46% Possession 54%

13 Shots 21

2 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vallecano 12. · Real Madrid 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	11	10	0	1	+16	+14.8	30
2	Villarreal	12	8	2	2	+14	+6.7	26
3	Barcelona	11	8	1	2	+15	+7.6	25
4	Ath Madrid	12	7	4	1	+13	+10.7	25
5	Betis	11	5	4	2	+6	+5.9	19
6	Espanol	12	5	3	4	+0	+6.2	18
7	Ath Bilbao	12	5	2	5	-1	+5.2	17
8	Getafe	11	5	2	4	-1	-3.4	17
9	Sevilla	12	5	1	6	-1	-10.3	16
10	Alaves	12	4	3	5	+0	+2.4	15
11	Elche	12	3	6	3	-1	-2.6	15
12	Vallecano	11	4	2	5	-2	-0.3	14
13	Celta	11	2	7	2	-1	+0.0	13
14	Sociedad	12	3	4	5	-3	+0.9	13
15	Osasuna	12	3	2	7	-4	-3.0	11
16	Girona	12	2	4	6	-13	-9.5	10
17	Levante	12	2	3	7	-7	-3.0	9
18	Mallorca	11	2	3	6	-7	-10.4	9
19	Valencia	11	2	3	6	-10	-6.0	9
20	Oviedo	12	2	2	8	-13	-12.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	7	6	1	0	+12	+11.1	19
2	Real Madrid	6	6	0	0	+11	+9.9	18
3	Villarreal	6	5	1	0	+13	+5.7	16
4	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	+13	+8.1	15
5	Ath Bilbao	7	4	1	2	+2	+7.4	13
6	Espanol	7	4	1	2	+1	+2.9	13
7	Betis	6	4	0	2	+5	+4.2	12
8	Elche	6	3	3	0	+4	+2.4	12
9	Alaves	6	3	2	1	+3	+3.2	11
10	Osasuna	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.0	10
11	Sociedad	6	3	1	2	+1	+3.1	10
12	Getafe	5	2	2	1	+2	-3.1	8
13	Girona	7	2	2	3	-6	-5.3	8
14	Valencia	5	2	1	2	+2	+2.4	7
15	Sevilla	6	2	1	3	+0	-1.4	7
16	Mallorca	5	1	3	1	-2	-4.2	6
17	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.9	5
18	Celta	6	0	5	1	-2	+2.6	5
19	Oviedo	6	1	1	4	-8	-7.3	4
20	Levante	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	+5	+4.8	12
2	Barcelona	6	3	1	2	+2	-0.4	10
3	Villarreal	6	3	1	2	+1	+1.1	10
4	Sevilla	6	3	0	3	-1	-8.9	9
5	Vallecano	7	3	0	4	-2	-2.2	9
6	Getafe	6	3	0	3	-3	-0.3	9
7	Levante	7	2	2	3	+1	+1.9	8
8	Celta	5	2	2	1	+1	-2.6	8
9	Betis	5	1	4	0	+1	+1.8	7
10	Ath Madrid	5	1	3	1	+1	-0.4	6
11	Espanol	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.3	5
12	Ath Bilbao	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.2	4
13	Alaves	6	1	1	4	-3	-0.8	4
14	Oviedo	6	1	1	4	-5	-4.7	4
15	Sociedad	6	0	3	3	-4	-2.2	3
16	Mallorca	6	1	0	5	-5	-6.2	3
17	Elche	6	0	3	3	-5	-5.0	3
18	Girona	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.2	2
19	Valencia	6	0	2	4	-12	-8.5	2
20	Osasuna	7	0	1	6	-7	-3.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.