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Bundesliga

Referee: Benjamin Brand

Freiburg

S T S U S

2–1

Full-time

St Pauli

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,7

0,3

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

22%

Points per game

1,1

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 45%

56%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

1,4

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,02 xG 0,53

60% Possession 40%

8 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 11. · St Pauli 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	9	1	0	+29	+20.0	28
2	RB Leipzig	10	7	1	2	+7	+4.2	22
3	Dortmund	10	6	3	1	+9	+5.6	21
4	Leverkusen	10	6	2	2	+10	+8.1	20
5	Hoffenheim	10	6	1	3	+5	+1.3	19
6	Stuttgart	9	6	0	3	+4	+3.4	18
7	Werder Bremen	10	4	3	3	-3	-5.3	15
8	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	+3	+2.6	14
9	FC Koln	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.5	14
10	Union Berlin	10	3	3	4	-4	-5.4	12
11	Freiburg	9	2	4	3	-2	+0.4	10
12	M'gladbach	10	2	3	5	-6	-2.4	9
13	Hamburg	10	2	3	5	-7	-3.6	9
14	Wolfsburg	10	2	2	6	-6	-4.5	8
15	Augsburg	9	2	1	6	-9	-8.4	7
16	St Pauli	9	2	1	6	-10	-4.8	7
17	Mainz	9	1	2	6	-7	-2.1	5
18	Heidenheim	10	1	2	7	-15	-7.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	5	0	0	+19	+8.9	15
2	Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	+11	+8.7	13
3	RB Leipzig	4	4	0	0	+7	+2.9	12
4	Stuttgart	4	4	0	0	+5	+1.3	12
5	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.0	10
6	Werder Bremen	5	3	1	1	+0	+1.6	10
7	Union Berlin	6	2	3	1	+1	-1.3	9
8	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	+5	+2.5	7
9	Hamburg	5	2	1	2	+2	+1.5	7
10	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.9	6
11	Hoffenheim	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.9	6
12	Freiburg	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.3	5
13	Heidenheim	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.8	5
14	M'gladbach	6	1	2	3	-7	-3.6	5
15	St Pauli	5	1	1	3	-7	-1.8	4
16	Augsburg	5	1	0	4	-9	-6.1	3
17	Wolfsburg	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.1	2
18	Mainz	5	0	1	4	-5	-3.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+10	+11.1	13
2	Hoffenheim	5	4	1	0	+7	+2.2	13
3	Dortmund	6	3	2	1	+4	+2.6	11
4	RB Leipzig	6	3	1	2	+0	+1.3	10
5	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.3	8
6	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	-1	-0.6	7
7	FC Koln	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.0	7
8	Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	+2.1	6
9	Wolfsburg	5	2	0	3	-1	-2.4	6
10	Freiburg	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.9	5
11	Werder Bremen	5	1	2	2	-3	-7.0	5
12	M'gladbach	4	1	1	2	+1	+1.2	4
13	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	+0	-2.3	4
14	Mainz	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.0	4
15	St Pauli	4	1	0	3	-3	-3.0	3
16	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.1	3
17	Hamburg	5	0	2	3	-9	-5.1	2
18	Heidenheim	5	0	0	5	-12	-5.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.