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Ekstraklasa

Referee: Patryk Gryckiewicz

Arka Gdynia

S T S T T

3–1

Full-time

Lech Poznan

T U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arka Gdynia Lech Poznan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,8

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 14/13 matches

Win Ø 34%

29%

38%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

50%

69%

Both score Ø 60%

43%

77%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,34 xG 2,67

44% Possession 56%

19 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arka Gdynia 16. · Lech Poznan 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gornik Zabrze	15	9	2	4	+12	-2.0	29
2	Jagiellonia	14	8	3	3	+9	-1.3	27
3	Wisla Plock	14	7	5	2	+9	+4.8	26
4	Rakow	14	7	2	5	+2	+1.7	23
5	Radomiak Radom	15	6	4	5	+4	+1.2	22
6	Cracovia	14	6	4	4	+4	+3.5	22
7	Zaglebie	14	5	6	3	+9	-1.2	21
8	Lech Poznan	13	5	6	2	+2	+6.9	21
9	Korona Kielce	15	5	5	5	+1	-1.7	20
10	Lechia Gdansk	15	5	3	7	-7	-3.1	18
11	Legia	14	4	5	5	+1	+2.5	17
12	Widzew Lodz	15	5	2	8	-1	+2.9	17
13	Pogon Szczecin	15	5	2	8	-6	+6.4	17
14	GKS Katowice	15	5	2	8	-6	-7.6	17
15	Motor Lublin	14	3	7	4	-5	+0.1	16
16	Arka Gdynia	14	4	3	7	-15	-6.0	15
17	Nieciecza	15	3	4	8	-10	-1.7	13
18	Piast Gliwice	13	2	5	6	-3	-5.5	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wisla Plock	8	6	1	1	+9	+6.2	19
2	Gornik Zabrze	8	6	0	2	+10	+1.7	18
3	Radomiak Radom	8	5	2	1	+11	+3.3	17
4	Zaglebie	7	4	3	0	+12	+2.6	15
5	Jagiellonia	7	5	0	2	+7	+0.6	15
6	Cracovia	7	4	3	0	+6	+5.1	15
7	Widzew Lodz	8	4	2	2	+5	+2.1	14
8	Arka Gdynia	6	4	2	0	+4	-2.2	14
9	Korona Kielce	7	4	1	2	+4	+0.4	13
10	Legia	7	3	3	1	+5	+2.2	12
11	Pogon Szczecin	7	4	0	3	+2	+6.4	12
12	Lechia Gdansk	7	3	2	2	+2	+1.0	11
13	Motor Lublin	7	2	4	1	+1	+4.7	10
14	Lech Poznan	8	2	4	2	-2	+5.0	10
15	GKS Katowice	8	3	1	4	-2	-3.8	10
16	Rakow	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.6	8
17	Piast Gliwice	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.2	6
18	Nieciecza	7	0	2	5	-10	-1.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	8	5	0	3	+1	+0.2	15
2	Jagiellonia	7	3	3	1	+2	-1.9	12
3	Lech Poznan	5	3	2	0	+4	+1.9	11
4	Gornik Zabrze	7	3	2	2	+2	-3.7	11
5	Nieciecza	8	3	2	3	+0	-0.5	11
6	Wisla Plock	6	1	4	1	+0	-1.4	7
7	Cracovia	7	2	1	4	-2	-1.6	7
8	Korona Kielce	8	1	4	3	-3	-2.1	7
9	GKS Katowice	7	2	1	4	-4	-3.7	7
10	Lechia Gdansk	8	2	1	5	-9	-4.2	7
11	Zaglebie	7	1	3	3	-3	-3.8	6
12	Motor Lublin	7	1	3	3	-6	-4.6	6
13	Piast Gliwice	7	1	2	4	-3	-4.3	5
14	Legia	7	1	2	4	-4	+0.3	5
15	Radomiak Radom	7	1	2	4	-7	-2.2	5
16	Pogon Szczecin	8	1	2	5	-8	-0.0	5
17	Widzew Lodz	7	1	0	6	-6	+0.8	3
18	Arka Gdynia	8	0	1	7	-19	-3.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.