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Super League

Referee: A Dudic

Lugano

S T U T S

2–5

Full-time

Basel

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Basel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,2

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,0

3,7

Scored

0,8

3,3

Conceded

1,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+3,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 50%

44%

56%

Points per game

1,5

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

53%

59%

Both score Ø 61%

62%

59%

Average goals

2,9

3,2

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

67% Possession 33%

20 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 7

8 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lugano 4. · Basel 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Basel	34	19	7	8	+44	+22.4	64
2	Servette	34	15	10	9	+5	-1.0	55
3	Young Boys	34	15	8	11	+6	+8.6	53
4	Lugano	34	15	7	12	+3	+7.9	52
5	Luzern	34	14	9	11	+8	+9.3	51
6	Lausanne	34	14	8	12	+9	+10.3	50
7	Zurich	35	14	8	13	-2	-1.2	50
8	St. Gallen	35	12	12	11	+0	-4.7	48
9	Sion	35	10	10	15	-9	-0.1	40
10	Winterthur	35	10	6	19	-24	-23.1	36
11	Yverdon	35	8	11	16	-24	-15.8	35
12	Grasshoppers	35	7	12	16	-16	-12.6	33

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Basel	18	12	2	4	+24	+18.6	38
2	Young Boys	17	11	4	2	+19	+8.6	37
3	Lausanne	18	11	2	5	+14	+10.8	35
4	Luzern	17	9	4	4	+11	+12.0	31
5	Lugano	17	9	4	4	+6	+11.1	31
6	St. Gallen	17	8	6	3	+8	+6.3	30
7	Servette	16	8	5	3	+6	+5.0	29
8	Sion	17	7	7	3	+9	+11.4	28
9	Zurich	18	7	5	6	-1	-0.5	26
10	Yverdon	18	6	5	7	-4	-2.3	23
11	Winterthur	17	7	2	8	-6	-6.7	23
12	Grasshoppers	17	3	8	6	-3	+4.6	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Basel	16	7	5	4	+20	+3.8	26
2	Servette	18	7	5	6	-1	-6.0	26
3	Zurich	17	7	3	7	-1	-0.7	24
4	Lugano	17	6	3	8	-3	-3.2	21
5	Luzern	17	5	5	7	-3	-2.7	20
6	St. Gallen	18	4	6	8	-8	-11.0	18
7	Young Boys	17	4	4	9	-13	-0.0	16
8	Grasshoppers	18	4	4	10	-13	-17.2	16
9	Lausanne	16	3	6	7	-5	-0.5	15
10	Winterthur	18	3	4	11	-18	-16.3	13
11	Sion	18	3	3	12	-18	-11.4	12
12	Yverdon	17	2	6	9	-20	-13.4	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.