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Super League
Referee: Desiree Blanco
Winterthur
T U T T T
2–4
Full-time
Lugano
S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Winterthur Lugano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
4,0
3,3
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
3,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 15%
0%
29%
Points per game
0,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 79%
86%
71%
Both score Ø 71%
71%
71%
Average goals
4,1
3,0
Scored
1,1
1,1
Conceded
3,0
1,9
Goal diff per game
-1,9
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%
9 Shots 29
5 Shots on target 14
2 Blocked shots 8
10 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 4
0 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Winterthur 12. · Lugano 11. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Thun 8 5 1 2 +4 -1.2 16
2 St. Gallen 8 5 0 3 +7 +1.7 15
3 Young Boys 8 4 2 2 -1 -2.7 14
4 Zurich 8 4 1 3 -2 +2.6 13
5 Sion 8 3 3 2 +3 +1.2 12
6 Basel 7 4 0 3 +3 +7.1 12
7 Luzern 8 3 3 2 +1 -4.4 12
8 Grasshoppers 8 2 3 3 +2 -4.4 9
9 Lausanne 8 2 2 4 +1 +3.3 8
10 Servette 7 2 2 3 +0 +0.1 8
11 Lugano 7 2 1 4 -5 +3.2 7
12 Winterthur 7 0 2 5 -13 -6.5 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

16. Mar -25 Lugano – Winterthur 2–1 25. Jan -25 Winterthur – Lugano 2–3 29. Sep -24 Lugano – Winterthur 2–1 16. May -24 Lugano – Winterthur 4–2 6. Apr -24 Winterthur – Lugano 2–2

Match report

Winterthur Lugano
1–0 B. Dansoko ⚽
27′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 A. Hunziker ⚽
E. Maluvunu
46′
57′
⚽ U. Bislimi 2–1
H. Mahou
59′
🔁 M. Zanotti
↦ M. Marques
59′
🔁 D. Dos Santos
↦ M. Belhadj
N. Burkart 🔁
↦ E. Maluvunu
62′
Luca Zuffi 🟨
63′
64′
⚽ D. Dos Santos 2–2
U. Bislimi
68′
🟨 Kevin Behrens
68′
⚽ K. Behrens 2–3
H. Mahou
70′
⚽ Y. Cimignani 2–4
M. Zanotti
71′
🟨 Hicham Mahou
74′
🔁 Z. Brault-Guillard
↦ H. Mahou
Silvan Sidler 🟨
77′
S. Cueni 🔁
↦ P. Kasami
77′
R. Schneider 🔁
↦ A. Jankewitz
77′
F. Momoh 🔁
↦ B. Dansoko
77′
Andrin Hunziker 🟨
81′
R. Buess 🔁
↦ L. Zuffi
88′
88′
🔁 C. Cassano
↦ Y. Cimignani
89′
🔁 A. Duville-Parsemain
↦ K. Behrens
Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Winterthur

4-4-2
1 S. Kapino G
24 S. Sidler D
16 R. Arnold D
66 M. Martins D
18 S. Diaby D
22 P. Kasami M
45 A. Jankewitz M
7 L. Zuffi M
11 B. Dansoko M
37 E. Maluvunu F
17 A. Hunziker F
Bench (9)
30 N. Brogli
33 T. Citherlet
44 S. Cueni
8 T. Golliard
10 R. Schneider
19 D. Ulrich
9 R. Buess
99 N. Burkart
14 F. Momoh

Coach: Uli Forte

Lugano

4-4-1-1
16 D. von Ballmoos G
26 M. Marques D
6 A. Papadopoulos D
17 L. Mai D
7 E. Alioski D
21 Y. Cimignani M
8 A. Grgic M
25 U. Bislimi M
18 H. Mahou M
29 M. Belhadj F
91 K. Behrens F
Bench (9)
1 A. Saipi
2 Z. Brault-Guillard
22 A. El Wafi
46 M. Zanotti
19 C. Cassano
27 D. Dos Santos
20 O. Doumbia
97 A. Duville-Parsemain
24 E. Pihlstrom

Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B ✓
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.