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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Manganiello

Inter

S T S S S

2–0

Full-time

Lazio

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 55%

70%

40%

Points per game

2,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

80%

30%

Both score Ø 35%

60%

10%

Average goals

3,6

2,0

Scored

2,4

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,91 xG 0,63

54% Possession 46%

8 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

26 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 4. · Lazio 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	11	8	0	3	+7	+1.9	24
2	Milan	11	6	4	1	+8	+5.1	22
3	Napoli	11	7	1	3	+6	+3.2	22
4	Inter	10	7	0	3	+12	+10.8	21
5	Bologna	11	6	3	2	+10	+3.3	21
6	Juventus	11	5	4	2	+4	+6.0	19
7	Como	11	4	6	1	+6	+2.8	18
8	Sassuolo	11	5	1	5	+2	-3.5	16
9	Lazio	10	4	3	3	+6	-3.3	15
10	Udinese	11	4	3	4	-5	-2.2	15
11	Cremonese	11	3	5	3	-1	-6.3	14
12	Torino	11	3	5	3	-6	-4.3	14
13	Atalanta	11	2	7	2	+2	+4.6	13
14	Cagliari	11	2	4	5	-5	-6.7	10
15	Lecce	11	2	4	5	-6	-4.7	10
16	Pisa	11	1	6	4	-6	-4.1	9
17	Parma	11	1	5	5	-7	-3.7	8
18	Genoa	11	1	4	6	-8	+2.0	7
19	Verona	11	0	6	5	-10	+0.4	6
20	Fiorentina	11	0	5	6	-9	-1.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bologna	5	4	1	0	+8	+5.6	13
2	Napoli	5	4	1	0	+5	-0.5	13
3	Milan	6	4	1	1	+3	+2.7	13
4	Inter	5	4	0	1	+11	+7.2	12
5	Como	6	3	3	0	+6	+2.4	12
6	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+5	+5.0	12
7	Roma	6	4	0	2	+4	+2.0	12
8	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+6	+1.2	10
9	Udinese	5	2	2	1	-1	+1.6	8
10	Torino	5	2	2	1	-1	-2.4	8
11	Atalanta	6	1	4	1	+0	+5.0	7
12	Cremonese	5	1	3	1	+0	+0.3	6
13	Sassuolo	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.8	6
14	Pisa	6	1	3	2	-1	-1.3	6
15	Parma	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.6	6
16	Cagliari	5	1	1	3	-3	-4.0	4
17	Verona	5	0	3	2	-2	+2.3	3
18	Lecce	6	0	3	3	-4	-1.9	3
19	Genoa	6	0	3	3	-6	+2.3	3
20	Fiorentina	5	0	1	4	-5	+0.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	5	4	0	1	+3	-0.1	12
2	Sassuolo	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.7	10
3	Milan	5	2	3	0	+5	+2.4	9
4	Inter	5	3	0	2	+1	+3.6	9
5	Napoli	6	3	0	3	+1	+3.7	9
6	Bologna	6	2	2	2	+2	-2.3	8
7	Cremonese	6	2	2	2	-1	-6.6	8
8	Juventus	5	2	1	2	-1	+1.0	7
9	Lecce	5	2	1	2	-2	-2.8	7
10	Udinese	6	2	1	3	-4	-3.8	7
11	Atalanta	5	1	3	1	+2	-0.4	6
12	Como	5	1	3	1	+0	+0.4	6
13	Cagliari	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.7	6
14	Torino	6	1	3	2	-5	-1.9	6
15	Lazio	5	1	2	2	+0	-4.4	5
16	Genoa	5	1	1	3	-2	-0.3	4
17	Fiorentina	6	0	4	2	-4	-2.2	4
18	Pisa	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.8	3
19	Verona	6	0	3	3	-8	-1.9	3
20	Parma	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.