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Eredivisie

Referee: Danny Makkelie

Utrecht

S T T S U

2–1

Full-time

Ajax

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

4,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,8

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 10/11 matches

Win Ø 48%

50%

45%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

60%

55%

Both score Ø 62%

50%

73%

Average goals

3,1

3,3

Scored

1,8

1,9

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,39 xG 0,64

32% Possession 68%

16 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 10. · Ajax 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	11	9	1	1	+20	+17.4	28
2	PSV Eindhoven	11	9	1	1	+19	+11.3	28
3	AZ Alkmaar	11	7	3	1	+11	+12.3	24
4	Ajax	11	5	5	1	+6	+2.6	20
5	Groningen	11	6	1	4	+2	+3.5	19
6	Twente	12	4	4	4	+2	+9.9	16
7	For Sittard	12	5	1	6	-2	-6.2	16
8	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	1	6	-10	-5.5	16
9	Nijmegen	11	4	3	4	+7	+5.2	15
10	Utrecht	10	5	0	5	+5	-2.8	15
11	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	4	4	+0	-2.7	13
12	Heerenveen	11	3	4	4	-2	+8.2	13
13	Volendam	12	3	4	5	-4	-8.8	13
14	NAC Breda	12	3	3	6	-6	-7.6	12
15	Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-13	-10.3	12
16	Excelsior	12	3	1	8	-12	-7.6	10
17	Telstar	12	2	3	7	-7	-6.8	9
18	Heracles	12	3	0	9	-16	-12.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	6	5	0	1	+7	+10.5	15
2	PSV Eindhoven	6	4	1	1	+9	+7.7	13
3	Ajax	6	4	1	1	+5	+4.3	13
4	For Sittard	6	4	1	1	+4	+1.3	13
5	Utrecht	5	4	0	1	+9	+2.9	12
6	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	2	0	+7	+6.5	11
7	Volendam	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.8	11
8	Nijmegen	5	3	1	1	+7	+5.1	10
9	Groningen	6	3	1	2	+4	+3.0	10
10	NAC Breda	6	3	1	2	+1	+2.4	10
11	Heerenveen	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.8	9
12	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.7	8
13	Twente	6	2	2	2	-1	+6.9	8
14	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-6	-2.8	7
15	Sparta Rotterdam	6	2	1	3	-7	-3.8	7
16	Heracles	5	2	0	3	-2	-3.5	6
17	Excelsior	6	2	0	4	-2	-3.5	6
18	Telstar	6	1	2	3	-3	+0.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+10	+3.6	15
2	Feyenoord	5	4	1	0	+13	+6.9	13
3	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	1	1	+4	+5.9	13
4	Groningen	5	3	0	2	-2	+0.5	9
5	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	0	3	-3	-1.7	9
6	Twente	6	2	2	2	+3	+2.9	8
7	Ajax	5	1	4	0	+1	-1.7	7
8	Nijmegen	6	1	2	3	+0	+0.1	5
9	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-2	-4.4	5
10	Zwolle	6	1	2	3	-7	-7.5	5
11	Heerenveen	5	1	1	3	-3	+1.3	4
12	Telstar	6	1	1	4	-4	-6.8	4
13	Excelsior	6	1	1	4	-10	-4.1	4
14	Utrecht	5	1	0	4	-4	-5.7	3
15	For Sittard	6	1	0	5	-6	-7.5	3
16	Heracles	7	1	0	6	-14	-8.6	3
17	NAC Breda	6	0	2	4	-7	-10.0	2
18	Volendam	6	0	2	4	-8	-9.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.