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Bundesliga

Referee: S Ebner

Sturm Graz

S T T T U

1–1

Full-time

Salzburg

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Salzburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,7

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 11/12 matches

Win Ø 61%

64%

58%

Points per game

1,9

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

55%

92%

Both score Ø 56%

45%

67%

Average goals

2,9

3,6

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,31 xG 0,73

45% Possession 55%

18 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

3 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sturm Graz 3. · Salzburg 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	12	7	3	2	+13	+4.9	24
2	SK Rapid	13	7	3	3	+5	+0.3	24
3	Sturm Graz	11	7	0	4	+8	+3.6	21
4	Wolfsberger AC	13	6	3	4	+7	-0.5	21
5	Hartberg	13	5	4	4	+2	-1.1	19
6	Austria Vienna	13	6	1	6	-3	+0.5	19
7	LASK	13	6	1	6	-3	-3.2	19
8	Ried	13	5	2	6	-3	-2.6	17
9	Tirol	12	3	5	4	-1	+5.1	14
10	Altach	13	3	5	5	-3	-1.6	14
11	BW Linz	13	3	1	9	-9	-3.5	10
12	Grazer AK	13	1	6	6	-13	-2.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	7	4	2	1	+10	+3.5	14
2	LASK	7	4	1	2	+1	-1.8	13
3	Tirol	7	3	2	2	+4	+3.7	11
4	Wolfsberger AC	8	3	1	4	+1	-0.7	10
5	SK Rapid	6	3	1	2	+1	+0.1	10
6	Altach	6	2	3	1	+0	+0.9	9
7	Austria Vienna	7	3	0	4	-5	+0.4	9
8	Ried	7	2	2	3	-3	-0.9	8
9	Grazer AK	7	1	4	2	-3	+1.4	7
10	BW Linz	6	2	0	4	-1	-2.1	6
11	Hartberg	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.2	4
12	Sturm Graz	4	1	0	3	-3	+0.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	7	6	0	1	+11	+3.6	18
2	Hartberg	9	4	3	2	+3	-1.3	15
3	SK Rapid	7	4	2	1	+4	+0.2	14
4	Wolfsberger AC	5	3	2	0	+6	+0.2	11
5	Salzburg	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.5	10
6	Austria Vienna	6	3	1	2	+2	+0.1	10
7	Ried	6	3	0	3	+0	-1.7	9
8	LASK	6	2	0	4	-4	-1.4	6
9	Altach	7	1	2	4	-3	-2.5	5
10	BW Linz	7	1	1	5	-8	-1.4	4
11	Tirol	5	0	3	2	-5	+1.4	3
12	Grazer AK	6	0	2	4	-10	-3.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.