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Allsvenskan

Sirius

T S U S S

3–1

Full-time

Varnamo

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sirius Varnamo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,8

4,7

Scored

2,5

1,5

Conceded

2,3

3,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 22%

34%

10%

Points per game

1,2

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

69%

62%

Both score Ø 73%

76%

69%

Average goals

3,4

3,5

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

4,78 xG 1,05

62% Possession 38%

36 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 4

17 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 3

12 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sirius 9. · Varnamo 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	29	22	6	1	+38	+9.0	72
2	Hammarby	29	18	5	6	+28	+18.1	59
3	GAIS	29	14	10	5	+16	+15.4	52
4	AIK	29	13	9	7	+9	+7.0	48
5	Goteborg	29	15	3	11	+6	+2.1	48
6	Djurgarden	29	12	10	7	+18	+10.3	46
7	Malmo FF	29	12	10	7	+12	+14.1	46
8	Elfsborg	29	12	4	13	-3	-1.8	40
9	Sirius	29	10	6	13	+0	+2.5	36
10	Hacken	29	9	8	12	-7	+4.5	35
11	Halmstad	29	9	5	15	-28	-13.5	32
12	Brommapojkarna	29	9	4	16	-5	-3.2	31
13	Norrkoping	29	8	5	16	-15	-14.0	29
14	Degerfors	29	7	6	16	-21	-6.8	27
15	Oster	29	6	8	15	-17	-16.8	26
16	Varnamo	29	3	7	19	-31	-26.8	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hammarby	14	11	1	2	+21	+14.3	34
2	Mjallby	14	10	4	0	+16	+6.9	34
3	GAIS	15	8	4	3	+8	+11.3	28
4	AIK	14	7	6	1	+11	+5.3	27
5	Djurgarden	15	6	7	2	+14	+10.7	25
6	Elfsborg	15	7	3	5	+6	+2.8	24
7	Malmo FF	14	6	4	4	+6	+11.0	22
8	Sirius	14	6	2	6	+8	+3.7	20
9	Goteborg	14	6	1	7	+1	+1.8	19
10	Halmstad	15	5	3	7	-13	-6.3	18
11	Hacken	15	4	4	7	-6	+6.6	16
12	Norrkoping	15	5	1	9	-8	-3.2	16
13	Oster	14	3	3	8	-6	-6.2	12
14	Brommapojkarna	14	4	0	10	-7	-0.7	12
15	Varnamo	15	2	5	8	-14	-12.8	11
16	Degerfors	15	1	5	9	-15	-1.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	15	12	2	1	+22	+2.1	38
2	Goteborg	15	9	2	4	+5	+0.3	29
3	Hammarby	15	7	4	4	+7	+3.9	25
4	GAIS	14	6	6	2	+8	+4.1	24
5	Malmo FF	15	6	6	3	+6	+3.0	24
6	Djurgarden	14	6	3	5	+4	-0.4	21
7	AIK	15	6	3	6	-2	+1.7	21
8	Brommapojkarna	15	5	4	6	+2	-2.5	19
9	Hacken	14	5	4	5	-1	-2.1	19
10	Degerfors	14	6	1	7	-6	-5.6	19
11	Sirius	15	4	4	7	-8	-1.2	16
12	Elfsborg	14	5	1	8	-9	-4.6	16
13	Oster	15	3	5	7	-11	-10.6	14
14	Halmstad	14	4	2	8	-15	-7.2	14
15	Norrkoping	14	3	4	7	-7	-10.9	13
16	Varnamo	14	1	2	11	-17	-14.0	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.