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Super League
Referee: J von Mandach
Basel
S U T S S
2–0
Full-time
Lugano
T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Basel Lugano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,7
3,3
Scored
1,7
1,7
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 30/30 matches
Win Ø 49%
50%
47%
Points per game
1,7
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
57%
60%
Both score Ø 65%
63%
67%
Average goals
3,1
3,0
Scored
2,0
1,6
Conceded
1,1
1,4
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,88 xG 1,48
41% Possession 59%
11 Shots 15
6 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 1
0 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Basel 1. · Lugano 5. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Basel 30 15 7 8 +29 +18.7 52
2 Servette 31 14 9 8 +8 +0.5 51
3 Young Boys 31 14 8 9 +11 +10.9 50
4 Luzern 30 13 9 8 +8 +5.3 48
5 Lugano 30 14 6 10 +5 +8.5 48
6 Zurich 31 13 8 10 +1 -2.8 47
7 Lausanne 31 12 8 11 +7 +8.7 44
8 St. Gallen 31 11 10 10 +2 -4.4 43
9 Sion 31 9 8 14 -9 +0.9 35
10 Yverdon 31 8 9 14 -18 -15.1 33
11 Grasshoppers 30 5 12 13 -13 -11.0 27
12 Winterthur 31 6 6 19 -31 -20.2 24

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

19. Jan -25 Lugano – Basel 2–2 27. Jul -24 Basel – Lugano 1–2 2. Apr -24 Lugano – Basel 2–0 3. Feb -24 Basel – Lugano 0–1 6. Dec -23 Lugano – Basel 1–3

Match report

Basel Lugano
Xherdan Shaqiri 🟨
12′
31′
🔁 Martim Marques
↦ M. Valenzuela
Albian Ajeti 🟨
33′
Metinho 🟨
39′
Half-time 0–0
47′
🟨 Lars Lukas Mai
Kevin Carlos 🔁
↦ A. Ajeti
56′
L. Leroy 🔁
↦ Metinho
56′
A. Kade 🔁
↦ P. Otele
56′
1–0 X. Shaqiri ⚽
63′
69′
🔁 Y. Cimignani
↦ L. Mai
69′
🔁 S. Vladi
↦ R. Macek
M. Šotiček 🔁
↦ B. Traoré
76′
82′
🔁 K. Przybyłko
↦ G. Koutsias
82′
🔁 M. Bottani
↦ A. Grgic
2–0 M. Šotiček ⚽
A. Kade
82′
87′
🟨 Uran Bislimi
G. Sigua 🔁
↦ X. Shaqiri
88′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Basel

4-2-3-1
1 M. Hitz G
17 J. Mendes D
32 J. Adjetey D
3 N. Vouilloz D
31 D. Schmid D
37 L. Avdullahu M
5 Metinho M
11 B. Traoré M
10 X. Shaqiri M
7 P. Otele M
23 A. Ajeti F
Bench (9)
9 Kevin Carlos
22 L. Leroy
30 A. Kade
19 M. Šotiček
21 G. Sigua
29 M. Cissé
43 M. Akahomen
8 Romário Baró
13 M. Salvi

Coach: F. Celestini

Lugano

3-4-2-1
1 A. Saipi G
6 A. Papadopoulos D
17 L. Mai D
5 A. Hajdari D
46 M. Zanotti M
25 U. Bislimi M
8 A. Grgic M
23 M. Valenzuela M
11 R. Steffen F
7 R. Macek F
70 G. Koutsias F
Bench (9)
26 Martim Marques
21 Y. Cimignani
9 S. Vladi
93 K. Przybyłko
10 M. Bottani
20 O. Doumbia
22 A. El Wafi
58 S. Osigwe
2 Z. Brault-Guillard

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J von Mandach · 40 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.