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2. Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Bickel

Holstein Kiel

U U U S T

1–0

Full-time

Fortuna Dusseldorf

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Fortuna Dusseldorf

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

36%

55%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

2,2

2,6

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,98 xG 1,39

45% Possession 55%

13 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 13. · Fortuna Dusseldorf 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	12	9	0	3	+9	+1.8	27
2	Paderborn	11	8	2	1	+9	+3.2	26
3	Elversberg	12	7	2	3	+13	-3.0	23
4	Darmstadt	12	6	4	2	+8	+4.4	22
5	Hannover	12	6	3	3	+4	+1.8	21
6	Karlsruhe	12	6	3	3	+1	-3.3	21
7	Kaiserslautern	12	6	2	4	+6	+0.4	20
8	Hertha	12	6	2	4	+5	-1.2	20
9	Bielefeld	12	5	2	5	+7	+1.6	17
10	Nurnberg	12	4	3	5	-3	+0.5	15
11	Preußen Münster	12	4	2	6	-4	-1.2	14
12	Greuther Furth	12	4	1	7	-12	-1.3	13
13	Holstein Kiel	11	3	3	5	+0	-0.6	12
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	3	2	6	-9	-3.8	11
15	Bochum	11	3	1	7	-4	+3.0	10
16	Braunschweig	11	3	1	7	-10	-1.3	10
17	Dresden	12	1	4	7	-8	+0.5	7
18	Magdeburg	11	2	1	8	-12	-1.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paderborn	6	5	0	1	+5	+0.8	15
2	Karlsruhe	6	5	0	1	+5	-0.9	15
3	Schalke 04	6	5	0	1	+4	+1.7	15
4	Elversberg	6	4	2	0	+9	-0.6	14
5	Kaiserslautern	6	4	1	1	+6	+1.3	13
6	Bielefeld	7	4	0	3	+8	+4.7	12
7	Darmstadt	6	3	3	0	+6	+3.2	12
8	Preußen Münster	6	3	2	1	+3	-1.7	11
9	Hertha	6	3	1	2	+0	+0.9	10
10	Bochum	5	3	0	2	+3	+3.6	9
11	Hannover	6	3	0	3	-2	+0.4	9
12	Nurnberg	6	2	2	2	-2	-0.2	8
13	Greuther Furth	6	2	1	3	-6	-0.6	7
14	Holstein Kiel	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.5	5
15	Braunschweig	5	1	1	3	-6	+0.3	4
16	Magdeburg	5	1	0	4	-6	+1.3	3
17	Dresden	6	0	2	4	-4	+1.6	2
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	0	2	4	-7	-1.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	6	3	3	0	+6	+1.5	12
2	Schalke 04	6	4	0	2	+5	+0.1	12
3	Paderborn	5	3	2	0	+4	+2.4	11
4	Hertha	6	3	1	2	+5	-2.0	10
5	Darmstadt	6	3	1	2	+2	+1.2	10
6	Elversberg	6	3	0	3	+4	-2.5	9
7	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	3	0	2	-2	-2.2	9
8	Kaiserslautern	6	2	1	3	+0	-0.8	7
9	Holstein Kiel	6	2	1	3	+0	-1.1	7
10	Nurnberg	6	2	1	3	-1	+0.7	7
11	Karlsruhe	6	1	3	2	-4	-2.4	6
12	Braunschweig	6	2	0	4	-4	-1.6	6
13	Greuther Furth	6	2	0	4	-6	-0.7	6
14	Bielefeld	5	1	2	2	-1	-3.1	5
15	Dresden	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.1	5
16	Magdeburg	6	1	1	4	-6	-3.0	4
17	Preußen Münster	6	1	0	5	-7	+0.5	3
18	Bochum	6	0	1	5	-7	-0.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.