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League Cup

Referee: Samuel Barrott

Arsenal

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Brighton

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,2

4,2

Scored

2,0

2,7

Conceded

0,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 1/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

2,0

6,0

Scored

2,0

6,0

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+6,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,27 xG 1,41

50% Possession 50%

16 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 6

8 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 2

4 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 25. · Brighton 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cardiff	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.9	12
2	Wycombe	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.4	8
3	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+7	+0.8	7
4	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.6	7
5	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+3	–	7
6	Wrexham	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.4	7
7	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.5	7
8	Grimsby	4	2	1	1	-2	+1.8	7
9	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+12	–	6
10	Doncaster	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
11	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
12	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
13	Cambridge United	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.1	6
14	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.8	6
15	Bradford	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.7	6
16	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
17	Reading	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.3	6
18	Port Vale	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
19	Wigan	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
20	Plymouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
21	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-5	-0.5	4
22	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
23	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
24	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
25	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
26	Stockport County	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
27	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
28	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
29	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.8	3
30	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
31	Preston	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
32	Everton	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
33	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
34	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
35	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
36	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
37	Cheltenham	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
38	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.9	3
39	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
40	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
41	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
42	Huddersfield	3	0	2	1	-2	+1.1	2
43	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
44	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
45	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
46	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
47	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
48	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
51	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
54	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
55	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
56	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
57	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
58	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
59	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
60	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
61	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
62	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
63	Burton Albion	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
64	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
65	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
68	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
69	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
70	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
71	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
72	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
73	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
74	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
75	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
76	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
77	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
78	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
79	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
80	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
81	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
82	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
83	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
84	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
85	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
86	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
87	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
88	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
89	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
90	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
91	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
92	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.6	7
2	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
3	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
4	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
5	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
6	Wigan	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
7	Wrexham	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.4	4
8	Grimsby	3	1	1	1	-3	+1.8	4
9	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-5	-0.5	4
10	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
11	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
12	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
13	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
14	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
16	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
17	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
18	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
19	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
20	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
21	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
22	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
23	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
24	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
25	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
26	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
27	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
28	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
29	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
31	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	Wycombe	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
35	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
36	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
37	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
38	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.1	1
39	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
40	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
42	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
43	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
44	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
45	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
46	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
47	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
48	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
49	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
50	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
51	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
52	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
53	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
54	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
55	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
56	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
57	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wycombe	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.4	7
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+12	–	6
3	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+7	+0.8	6
4	Doncaster	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
5	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
6	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
7	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.6	6
8	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
9	Bradford	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.7	6
10	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
11	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
12	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	Wrexham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
14	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
15	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
16	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
18	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
19	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
20	Reading	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	3
21	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
22	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
23	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
24	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
25	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
26	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
33	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
35	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
36	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
37	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
38	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
39	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
41	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
42	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
43	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
44	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
45	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
46	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
47	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
48	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
49	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
50	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
51	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
52	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
53	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
54	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
55	Everton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
56	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
57	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
58	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
59	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.