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Premier League

Referee: Jarred Gillett

Aston Villa

U S S S T

0–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,0

1,8

Scored

2,5

1,5

Conceded

1,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

0,0

3,0

Conceded

4,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

-4,0

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,33 xG 1,04

39% Possession 61%

7 Shots 7

0 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 4

0 Offside 8

17 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 17. · Arsenal 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.1	6
2	Hull	2	2	0	0	+3	-1.4	6
3	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.4	6
4	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.5	4
5	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.8	4
6	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.2	4
7	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
8	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+3	+2.0	3
9	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
10	Man United	2	1	0	1	+1	+3.4	3
11	Sunderland	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
12	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.4	3
13	Liverpool	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.9	2
14	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
15	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
16	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.0	0
17	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-3.5	0
18	Coventry	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.1	0
19	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-5	-0.7	0
20	Tottenham	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.5	3
2	Man United	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.5	3
3	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
4	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.3	3
5	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
6	Hull	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
7	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
8	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
9	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
10	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
11	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
12	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.4	1
13	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
14	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
15	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
16	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
17	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.6	0
18	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
19	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.5	3
2	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
3	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
4	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
5	Hull	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.6	3
6	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
7	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.4	1
8	Everton	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
9	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
10	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
11	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
12	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
13	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
14	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
15	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
16	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.5	0
17	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0
18	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.3	0
19	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-3.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.