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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Arsenal

S S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Brighton

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

0,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,08 xG 1,83

36% Possession 64%

11 Shots 22

7 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

3 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 4. · Brighton 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.8	6
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.6	6
3	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.5	6
4	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.4	6
5	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+4	+1.6	4
6	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.1	4
7	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.4	4
8	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.0	3
9	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.5	3
10	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.3	3
11	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.8	3
12	Brentford	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.9	3
13	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.0	3
14	Bournemouth	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.5	2
15	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
16	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.8	0
17	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.5	0
18	Ipswich	2	0	0	2	-5	-5.2	0
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-6	-0.5	0
20	Everton	2	0	0	2	-7	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.4	3
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.0	3
3	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.3	3
4	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
5	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
6	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
7	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
8	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.5	3
9	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
10	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
11	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
12	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
13	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
14	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
15	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.0	0
16	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
17	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
18	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.2	0
19	Everton	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.0	0
20	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-4	+0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+4	-0.3	3
2	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.0	3
3	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.0	3
4	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
5	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
6	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
7	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
8	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
9	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
10	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
11	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
12	Man United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
13	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
14	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
15	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.5	0
16	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
17	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.3	0
18	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
19	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.0	0
20	Everton	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.