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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Brighton

U T U U U

1–1

Full-time

Arsenal

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 45%

32%

58%

Points per game

1,4

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

68%

42%

Both score Ø 66%

79%

53%

Average goals

3,0

2,9

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,52 xG 0,88

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 11. · Arsenal 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	3	1	+28	+25.3	45
2	Arsenal	19	11	6	2	+21	+17.5	39
3	Nott'm Forest	19	11	4	4	+7	+3.5	37
4	Chelsea	20	10	6	4	+15	+11.3	36
5	Newcastle	20	10	5	5	+12	+11.3	35
6	Man City	20	10	4	6	+9	+7.7	34
7	Bournemouth	20	9	6	5	+7	+14.8	33
8	Aston Villa	20	9	5	6	-2	+6.7	32
9	Fulham	19	7	8	4	+3	+1.8	29
10	Brentford	20	8	3	9	+3	-0.5	27
11	Brighton	19	6	9	4	+1	-2.9	27
12	Tottenham	20	7	3	10	+12	+2.3	24
13	West Ham	20	6	5	9	-15	-7.1	23
14	Man United	19	6	4	9	-5	-0.7	22
15	Crystal Palace	20	4	9	7	-7	-1.6	21
16	Everton	19	3	8	8	-10	-8.4	17
17	Wolves	19	4	4	11	-11	-11.4	16
18	Ipswich	19	3	6	10	-15	-21.6	15
19	Leicester	20	3	5	12	-21	-20.9	14
20	Southampton	20	1	3	16	-32	-27.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	7	1	1	+12	+11.2	22
2	Brentford	10	7	1	2	+8	+5.2	22
3	Aston Villa	11	6	4	1	+6	+11.9	22
4	Arsenal	9	6	3	0	+12	+13.2	21
5	Man City	10	6	2	2	+7	+9.5	20
6	Bournemouth	10	5	3	2	+5	+9.6	18
7	Newcastle	9	5	2	2	+7	+7.0	17
8	Nott'm Forest	9	5	2	2	+4	+4.3	17
9	Fulham	10	4	4	2	+1	+0.4	16
10	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+4	+6.9	15
11	Tottenham	11	4	2	5	+5	+0.7	14
12	Brighton	9	3	5	1	+1	+1.6	14
13	Man United	10	4	1	5	-3	+0.3	13
14	Crystal Palace	11	2	5	4	-7	+0.8	11
15	West Ham	10	3	2	5	-9	-4.7	11
16	Everton	9	2	4	3	-1	-3.5	10
17	Leicester	10	2	3	5	-6	-7.9	9
18	Wolves	9	2	1	6	-6	-5.3	7
19	Ipswich	10	1	4	5	-8	-7.7	7
20	Southampton	10	1	1	8	-20	-16.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+16	+14.1	23
2	Chelsea	11	6	3	2	+11	+4.4	21
3	Nott'm Forest	10	6	2	2	+3	-0.8	20
4	Arsenal	10	5	3	2	+9	+4.3	18
5	Newcastle	11	5	3	3	+5	+4.3	18
6	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	+5.2	15
7	Man City	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.8	14
8	Fulham	9	3	4	2	+2	+1.4	13
9	Brighton	10	3	4	3	+0	-4.5	13
10	West Ham	10	3	3	4	-6	-2.5	12
11	Tottenham	9	3	1	5	+7	+1.6	10
12	Crystal Palace	9	2	4	3	+0	-2.4	10
13	Aston Villa	9	3	1	5	-8	-5.2	10
14	Man United	9	2	3	4	-2	-1.0	9
15	Wolves	10	2	3	5	-5	-6.1	9
16	Ipswich	9	2	2	5	-7	-13.9	8
17	Everton	10	1	4	5	-9	-4.8	7
18	Brentford	10	1	2	7	-5	-5.7	5
19	Leicester	10	1	2	7	-15	-13.0	5
20	Southampton	10	0	2	8	-12	-10.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.