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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Chelsea

T S T S S

4–3

Full-time

Brighton

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

5,0

4,0

Scored

3,0

4,0

Conceded

2,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

2,93 xG 1,41

26% Possession 74%

17 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 7

6 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 8. · Brighton 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.1	6
2	Hull	2	2	0	0	+3	-1.4	6
3	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.8	4
4	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.2	4
5	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.5	3
6	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
7	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.3	3
8	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
9	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
10	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
11	Liverpool	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.9	2
12	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
13	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
14	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
15	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
16	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
17	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-3.5	0
18	Coventry	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.1	0
19	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-5	-0.7	0
20	Tottenham	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.5	3
2	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
3	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.3	3
4	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
5	Hull	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
6	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
7	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
8	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
9	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.4	1
10	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
11	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
12	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
13	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.6	0
14	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
15	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.5	3
2	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
3	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
4	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
5	Hull	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.6	3
6	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
7	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.4	1
8	Everton	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
9	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
10	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
11	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
12	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
13	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0
14	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.3	0
15	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-3.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.