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Ligue 1

Referee: François Letexier

Toulouse

T T T U S

4–0

Full-time

Metz

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

2,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

43%

Points per game

1,4

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

1,6

0,7

Conceded

1,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,54 xG 0,08

36% Possession 64%

16 Shots 2

7 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Toulouse 9. · Metz 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	8	6	0	2	+14	+9.2	18
2	Paris SG	8	5	2	1	+8	+5.2	17
3	Strasbourg	8	5	1	2	+7	+6.1	16
4	Lens	8	5	1	2	+5	+3.4	16
5	Lyon	8	5	0	3	+3	+6.5	15
6	Monaco	8	4	2	2	+4	+2.8	14
7	Lille	7	3	2	2	+4	+3.1	11
8	Nice	8	3	2	3	-2	-5.5	11
9	Toulouse	7	3	1	3	-1	+0.6	10
10	Rennes	7	2	4	1	-1	-3.7	10
11	Paris FC	8	3	1	4	-2	-2.4	10
12	Brest	7	2	2	3	+0	+0.3	8
13	Lorient	7	2	1	4	-7	-1.5	7
14	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-2	-5.1	6
15	Auxerre	7	2	0	5	-5	-2.2	6
16	Le Havre	8	1	3	4	-6	-1.2	6
17	Angers	8	1	3	4	-8	-7.5	6
18	Metz	7	0	2	5	-11	-8.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	4	4	0	0	+12	+8.0	12
2	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.7	10
3	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.1	10
4	Nice	5	3	1	1	+3	-2.1	10
5	Strasbourg	4	3	0	1	+6	+5.8	9
6	Lens	4	3	0	1	+5	+5.6	9
7	Lyon	4	3	0	1	+4	+5.1	9
8	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.4	7
9	Lille	4	2	1	1	+1	+3.2	7
10	Paris FC	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.6	6
11	Lorient	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.0	6
12	Auxerre	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.0	6
13	Brest	4	1	2	1	+2	+2.5	5
14	Le Havre	4	1	2	1	+1	+4.6	5
15	Angers	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.4	5
16	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
17	Toulouse	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.5	4
18	Metz	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.1	7
2	Strasbourg	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.3	7
3	Lens	4	2	1	1	+0	-2.2	7
4	Marseille	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.2	6
5	Toulouse	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.0	6
6	Lyon	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.4	6
7	Lille	3	1	1	1	+3	-0.0	4
8	Monaco	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.9	4
9	Paris FC	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.0	4
10	Brest	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.1	3
11	Rennes	4	0	3	1	-4	-4.1	3
12	Nantes	4	0	2	2	-2	-4.3	2
13	Nice	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.5	1
14	Le Havre	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.8	1
15	Angers	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.1	1
16	Lorient	4	0	1	3	-7	-3.5	1
17	Auxerre	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.3	0
18	Metz	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.