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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Lille

T S U S T

6–1

Full-time

Metz

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

63%

Both score Ø 44%

50%

38%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

2,0

0,6

Conceded

1,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,92 xG 1,29

62% Possession 38%

23 Shots 10

12 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 8

1 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 7. · Metz 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	6	2	1	+11	+5.6	20
2	Lens	9	6	1	2	+6	+4.6	19
3	Marseille	9	6	0	3	+13	+8.1	18
4	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+5	+5.2	17
5	Strasbourg	8	5	1	2	+7	+6.1	16
6	Lyon	8	5	0	3	+3	+6.5	15
7	Lille	8	4	2	2	+6	+5.3	14
8	Toulouse	9	4	1	4	+2	+0.6	13
9	Rennes	8	2	5	1	-1	-3.2	11
10	Nice	8	3	2	3	-2	-5.5	11
11	Paris FC	9	3	1	5	-3	-2.1	10
12	Brest	9	2	3	4	-3	+0.3	9
13	Nantes	9	2	3	4	-3	-7.5	9
14	Lorient	8	2	2	4	-7	-1.9	8
15	Auxerre	8	2	1	5	-5	-2.8	7
16	Le Havre	8	1	3	4	-6	-1.2	6
17	Angers	8	1	3	4	-8	-7.5	6
18	Metz	8	0	2	6	-15	-10.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+7	+7.0	13
2	Marseille	4	4	0	0	+12	+8.0	12
3	Lens	5	4	0	1	+6	+6.8	12
4	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.1	10
5	Nice	5	3	1	1	+3	-2.1	10
6	Strasbourg	4	3	0	1	+6	+5.8	9
7	Lyon	4	3	0	1	+4	+5.1	9
8	Rennes	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.9	8
9	Toulouse	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.0	7
10	Lille	4	2	1	1	+1	+3.2	7
11	Lorient	4	2	1	1	+0	+1.6	7
12	Paris FC	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.9	6
13	Auxerre	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.0	6
14	Le Havre	4	1	2	1	+1	+4.6	5
15	Brest	5	1	2	2	-1	+2.0	5
16	Angers	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.4	5
17	Nantes	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.9	4
18	Metz	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.5	10
2	Lille	4	2	1	1	+5	+2.1	7
3	Strasbourg	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.3	7
4	Lens	4	2	1	1	+0	-2.2	7
5	Marseille	5	2	0	3	+1	+0.0	6
6	Lyon	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.4	6
7	Toulouse	5	2	0	3	-1	-2.4	6
8	Nantes	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.6	5
9	Brest	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
10	Monaco	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.9	4
11	Paris FC	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.0	4
12	Rennes	4	0	3	1	-4	-4.1	3
13	Nice	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.5	1
14	Auxerre	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.8	1
15	Le Havre	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.8	1
16	Angers	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.1	1
17	Lorient	4	0	1	3	-7	-3.5	1
18	Metz	4	0	0	4	-11	-7.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.