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Ligue 1

Referee: François Letexier

Paris SG

U U S S U

1–0

Full-time

Nice

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,2

3,3

Scored

2,8

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 55%

60%

50%

Points per game

2,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

30%

60%

Both score Ø 55%

40%

70%

Average goals

2,9

3,1

Scored

2,0

1,6

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,29 xG 0,48

77% Possession 23%

28 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 2

11 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

11 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 5

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Nice 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	6	3	1	+11	+6.9	21
2	Monaco	10	6	2	2	+7	+7.9	20
3	Marseille	10	6	1	3	+13	+8.4	19
4	Strasbourg	10	6	1	3	+9	+8.5	19
5	Lyon	10	6	1	3	+4	+8.3	19
6	Lens	10	6	1	3	+4	+2.5	19
7	Lille	10	5	2	3	+9	+6.1	17
8	Nice	10	5	2	3	+1	-5.7	17
9	Toulouse	10	4	2	4	+2	+0.6	14
10	Rennes	10	2	6	2	-2	-2.1	12
11	Le Havre	10	3	3	4	-4	-0.4	12
12	Paris FC	10	3	2	5	-3	-2.7	11
13	Angers	10	2	4	4	-6	-8.8	10
14	Brest	10	2	3	5	-4	-0.2	9
15	Nantes	10	2	3	5	-5	-10.2	9
16	Lorient	10	2	3	5	-9	-2.1	9
17	Auxerre	10	2	1	7	-9	-6.7	7
18	Metz	10	1	2	7	-18	-10.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	5	4	1	0	+12	+8.3	13
2	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+7	+7.0	13
3	Nice	6	4	1	1	+5	-1.3	13
4	Strasbourg	5	4	0	1	+9	+9.4	12
5	Lens	5	4	0	1	+6	+6.8	12
6	Lyon	5	4	0	1	+5	+6.3	12
7	Lille	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.8	10
8	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.1	10
9	Toulouse	5	2	2	1	+3	+3.0	8
10	Le Havre	5	2	2	1	+2	+5.1	8
11	Rennes	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.9	8
12	Angers	5	2	2	1	+1	-2.4	8
13	Lorient	5	2	2	1	+0	+0.4	8
14	Paris FC	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.3	7
15	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.3	6
16	Brest	5	1	2	2	-1	+2.0	5
17	Metz	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.1	5
18	Nantes	5	1	1	3	-4	-5.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	3	2	1	+6	+3.8	11
2	Lille	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.3	7
3	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
4	Monaco	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.8	7
5	Lyon	5	2	1	2	-1	+2.0	7
6	Lens	5	2	1	2	-2	-4.3	7
7	Marseille	5	2	0	3	+1	+0.0	6
8	Toulouse	5	2	0	3	-1	-2.4	6
9	Nantes	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.6	5
10	Brest	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.2	4
11	Rennes	5	0	4	1	-4	-4.0	4
12	Nice	4	1	1	2	-4	-4.5	4
13	Paris FC	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.0	4
14	Le Havre	5	1	1	3	-6	-5.5	4
15	Angers	5	0	2	3	-7	-6.4	2
16	Auxerre	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.4	1
17	Lorient	5	0	1	4	-9	-2.4	1
18	Metz	5	0	0	5	-16	-9.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.