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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Schlager

FC Koln

T S U T T

4–1

Full-time

Hamburg

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Koln Hamburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 32%

38%

25%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 44%

63%

25%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,72 xG 1,09

48% Possession 52%

23 Shots 11

10 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match FC Koln 9. · Hamburg 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	9	0	0	+29	+19.4	27
2	RB Leipzig	9	7	1	1	+9	+4.2	22
3	Dortmund	9	6	2	1	+9	+5.2	20
4	Stuttgart	9	6	0	3	+4	+3.4	18
5	Leverkusen	9	5	2	2	+4	+4.9	17
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	+3	+2.6	14
7	Hoffenheim	8	4	1	3	+2	+1.6	13
8	Werder Bremen	9	3	3	3	-4	-6.2	12
9	FC Koln	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.4	11
10	Union Berlin	9	3	2	4	-4	-4.8	11
11	Freiburg	9	2	4	3	-2	+0.4	10
12	Wolfsburg	8	2	2	4	-4	-3.9	8
13	Hamburg	8	2	2	4	-4	-0.5	8
14	Augsburg	9	2	1	6	-9	-8.4	7
15	St Pauli	9	2	1	6	-10	-4.8	7
16	M'gladbach	9	1	3	5	-8	-3.2	6
17	Mainz	9	1	2	6	-7	-2.1	5
18	Heidenheim	9	1	2	6	-9	-4.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	5	0	0	+19	+8.9	15
2	RB Leipzig	4	4	0	0	+7	+2.9	12
3	Stuttgart	4	4	0	0	+5	+1.3	12
4	Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	+5	+5.5	10
5	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.0	10
6	Union Berlin	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.7	8
7	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	-1	+0.8	7
8	Hamburg	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.9	6
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.9	6
10	Freiburg	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.3	5
11	Heidenheim	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.8	5
12	FC Koln	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.1	4
13	St Pauli	5	1	1	3	-7	-1.8	4
14	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.9	3
15	Augsburg	5	1	0	4	-9	-6.1	3
16	Wolfsburg	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.4	2
17	M'gladbach	5	0	2	3	-9	-4.3	2
18	Mainz	5	0	1	4	-5	-3.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+10	+10.5	12
2	Hoffenheim	4	3	1	0	+6	+2.5	10
3	Dortmund	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.2	10
4	RB Leipzig	5	3	1	1	+2	+1.3	10
5	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.3	8
6	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	-1	-0.6	7
7	FC Koln	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.3	7
8	Wolfsburg	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.5	6
9	Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	+2.1	6
10	Freiburg	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.9	5
11	Werder Bremen	5	1	2	2	-3	-7.0	5
12	M'gladbach	4	1	1	2	+1	+1.2	4
13	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	+0	-2.3	4
14	Mainz	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.0	4
15	St Pauli	4	1	0	3	-3	-3.0	3
16	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.1	3
17	Hamburg	4	0	2	2	-6	-2.5	2
18	Heidenheim	4	0	0	4	-6	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.