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League Cup

Referee: A Kitchen

Nott'm Forest

T U T U T

0–2

Full-time

Leeds

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,18 xG 2,72

50% Possession 50%

8 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Ham	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
2	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
3	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
4	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
5	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
6	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
7	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
8	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
9	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
10	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
11	Leyton Orient	2	1	1	0	+2	–	4
12	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
13	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
14	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
15	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
16	Luton	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
17	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
18	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
19	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
20	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
21	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
22	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
23	Crewe	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
24	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
25	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
26	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
27	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
28	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
29	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
30	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
31	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
32	Stevenage	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.3	3
33	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
34	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
35	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
36	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
37	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
38	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
39	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
40	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
41	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
42	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
43	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
44	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
45	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
46	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
47	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
48	Doncaster	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
49	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
50	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
51	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
52	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
53	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
54	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
55	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
56	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
57	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
58	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
59	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
60	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
63	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
64	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
65	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
66	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
67	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
68	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
69	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
70	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
71	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
72	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
73	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
74	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
75	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
2	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
3	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
4	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
5	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
6	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
7	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
8	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
9	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
10	Crewe	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
11	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
12	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
13	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
14	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
15	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
16	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
17	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
18	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
19	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
20	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
21	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
22	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
23	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
24	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
25	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
28	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
29	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
30	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
31	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
32	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
33	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
34	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
35	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
36	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
37	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
38	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
39	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
40	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
41	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
42	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
43	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.3	0
44	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
2	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
3	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
4	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
5	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
6	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
7	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
8	Luton	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
9	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
10	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
12	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
14	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
16	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
18	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
20	Walsall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
21	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
22	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
23	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
24	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
25	Doncaster	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Leyton Orient	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
29	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
30	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
31	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
32	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
33	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
34	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
35	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
36	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
39	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
40	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
41	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
42	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
43	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
44	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.