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Championship
Referee: G Eltringham
Nott'm Forest
S U U U T
2–1
Full-time
Coventry
T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Coventry
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
1,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
1,8
3,2
Scored
0,8
0,8
Conceded
1,0
2,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-1,5
This season — Championship · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 17%
11%
22%
Points per game
0,7
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
11%
56%
Both score Ø 50%
44%
56%
Average goals
1,8
3,0
Scored
0,6
1,0
Conceded
1,2
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%
15 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 7
6 Blocked shots 2
6 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 4
1 Offside 3
16 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nott'm Forest 22. · Coventry 21.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Reading 10 7 1 2 +8 22
2 Swansea 9 5 3 1 +7 18
3 Norwich 10 5 3 2 +4 18
4 Watford 10 5 3 2 +4 18
5 Bournemouth 10 4 5 1 +4 17
6 Middlesbrough 10 4 5 1 +4 17
7 Bristol City 10 5 2 3 +3 17
8 Millwall 10 4 4 2 +2 16
9 Stoke 10 4 3 3 +0 15
10 Brentford 9 4 2 3 +5 14
11 Preston 10 4 1 5 +2 13
12 Cardiff 10 3 4 3 +2 13
13 Birmingham 9 3 4 2 +1 13
14 Huddersfield 10 4 1 5 -1 13
15 Luton 9 4 1 4 -3 13
16 Blackburn 10 3 2 5 +5 11
17 Sheffield Weds 10 3 2 5 -4 11
18 Barnsley 10 2 4 4 -3 10
19 QPR 9 2 4 3 -3 10
20 Rotherham 9 2 3 4 -2 9
21 Coventry 9 2 2 5 -9 8
22 Nott'm Forest 9 1 3 5 -6 6
23 Derby 9 1 3 5 -8 6
24 Wycombe 9 1 1 7 -12 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nott'm Forest Coventry
Samba Sow 🟨
18′
1–0 S. McKenna
30′
Half-time 1–0
56′
🔁 T. Walker
↦ M. Godden
57′
C. O'Hare 1–1
S. McCallum
S. Ameobi 🔁
↦ L. Freeman
68′
R. Yates 🔁
↦ S. Sow
68′
Guerrero 🔁
↦ A. Knockaert
79′
85′
🟨 Leo Østigård
90′
🟨 Kyle McFadzean
92′
🔁 J. Da Costa
↦ R. Giles
2–1 L. Taylor
97′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Nott'm Forest

4-2-3-1
30 B. Samba G
2 C. Christie D
3 Tobias Figueiredo D
5 Yuri Ribeiro D
26 S. McKenna D
8 J. Colback M
21 S. Sow M
28 A. Knockaert M
15 L. Freeman M
33 L. Taylor F
23 J. Lolley M
Bench (7)
11 S. Ameobi
22 R. Yates
19 Guerrero
12 J. Smith
16 C. Jenkinson
6 L. Mbe Soh
31 H. Arter

Coach: C. Hughton

Coventry

5-3-2
1 M. Maroši G
5 K. McFadzean D
4 M. Rose D
2 L. Østigård D
21 S. McCallum D
14 B. Sheaf M
18 R. Giles D
11 C. O'Hare M
38 G. Hamer M
24 M. Godden F
9 M. Biamou F
Bench (7)
19 T. Walker
29 J. Da Costa
8 J. Allen
6 L. Kelly
27 J. Thompson
41 W. Bapaga
13 B. Wilson

Coach: M. Robins

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,86
U
3,47
B
4,45
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,12
U2,5
1,72
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

G Eltringham · 124 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.