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Premier League

Referee: Andy Madley

Aston Villa

S T T U S

1–2

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U T T U U

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,7

Scored

0,0

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

7 Shots 22

5 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 1

0 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 17. · Nott'm Forest 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.1	9
2	Arsenal	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.4	9
3	Hull	3	2	1	0	+3	-1.4	7
4	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.4	6
5	Brentford	3	1	2	0	+3	+3.5	5
6	Liverpool	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.9	5
7	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	+2	-1.8	5
8	Everton	3	1	2	0	+2	-1.2	5
9	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.4	5
10	Brighton	3	1	1	1	+3	+2.0	4
11	Man United	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.4	4
12	Sunderland	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.1	4
13	Crystal Palace	3	1	0	2	-4	-0.7	3
14	Ipswich	3	1	0	2	-4	-1.4	3
15	Bournemouth	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.3	2
16	Nott'm Forest	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.7	2
17	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	-5	-4.2	1
18	Tottenham	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.9	1
19	Fulham	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.0	0
20	Coventry	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.6	6
3	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+4	+3.5	4
4	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.3	4
5	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.8	4
6	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.8	4
7	Man United	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.5	3
8	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
9	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
10	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.1	3
11	Newcastle	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.4	2
12	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
13	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
14	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
15	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
16	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
17	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.6	0
18	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.9	0
19	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
20	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.4	4
2	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
3	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.5	3
4	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
5	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
6	Hull	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.6	3
7	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.9	3
8	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.8	3
9	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
10	Everton	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
11	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
12	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
13	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
14	Man United	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.8	1
15	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.3	1
16	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-4	-3.5	1
17	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
18	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
19	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.5	0
20	Coventry	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.