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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Man City

S U T S S

1–0

Full-time

Coventry

S S T S T

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Coventry

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

4,0

Scored

2,0

2,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

3,0

0,0

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

78% Possession 22%

15 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

5 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Coventry 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.1	6
2	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.4	6
3	Hull	2	2	0	0	+3	-1.4	6
4	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.4	6
5	Liverpool	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.9	5
6	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	+2	-1.8	5
7	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.5	4
8	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.2	4
9	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
10	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+3	+2.0	3
11	Man United	2	1	0	1	+1	+3.4	3
12	Sunderland	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
13	Ipswich	3	1	0	2	-4	-1.4	3
14	Bournemouth	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.3	2
15	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
16	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.0	0
17	Coventry	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.1	0
18	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-5	-0.7	0
19	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-5	-4.2	0
20	Tottenham	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.5	3
2	Man United	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.5	3
3	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
4	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.3	3
5	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
6	Hull	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
7	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
8	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
9	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
10	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.1	3
11	Newcastle	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.4	2
12	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
13	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
14	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
15	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
16	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
17	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
18	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.6	0
19	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
20	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.4	4
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.5	3
3	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
4	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
5	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
6	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
7	Hull	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.6	3
8	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
9	Everton	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
10	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
11	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
12	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
13	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
14	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
15	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
16	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
17	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.5	0
18	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0
19	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.3	0
20	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-3.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.