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Primeira Liga

Referee: H Carvalho

Arouca

S U U T S

1–2

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

1,0

2,8

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 50%

22%

78%

Points per game

0,9

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

61%

67%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

44%

Average goals

3,4

3,3

Scored

1,1

2,8

Conceded

2,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,10 xG 1,05

35% Possession 65%

11 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arouca 15. · Sp Lisbon 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	18	17	1	0	+33	+23.9	52
2	Sp Lisbon	18	14	3	1	+41	+30.5	45
3	Benfica	18	12	6	0	+27	+20.8	42
4	Gil Vicente	18	8	7	3	+11	+4.7	31
5	Sp Braga	18	8	6	4	+14	+13.5	30
6	Moreirense	19	9	3	7	+0	-6.0	30
7	Famalicao	18	7	5	6	+7	+6.8	26
8	Guimaraes	18	7	4	7	-5	-4.6	25
9	Estoril	18	6	5	7	+4	-2.7	23
10	Alverca	18	7	2	9	-9	-0.3	23
11	Rio Ave	18	4	8	6	-9	-14.3	20
12	Estrela	18	4	7	7	-9	-7.4	19
13	Nacional	18	4	5	9	-6	-7.5	17
14	Santa Clara	19	4	5	10	-7	+2.0	17
15	Arouca	18	4	5	9	-23	-18.5	17
16	Casa Pia	19	3	6	10	-18	-18.5	15
17	Tondela	18	3	3	12	-18	-6.4	12
18	AVS	19	0	5	14	-33	-16.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+27	+18.7	22
2	Porto	8	7	1	0	+14	+12.1	22
3	Benfica	9	5	4	0	+12	+12.8	19
4	Moreirense	9	6	1	2	+3	-1.7	19
5	Gil Vicente	9	5	2	2	+5	+3.0	17
6	Alverca	10	5	1	4	-5	+4.1	16
7	Estoril	9	4	3	2	+5	-0.4	15
8	Guimaraes	10	4	3	3	+0	-2.8	15
9	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+7	+7.0	14
10	Famalicao	9	3	2	4	+5	+3.5	11
11	Santa Clara	10	3	2	5	-1	+3.7	11
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	+0.4	10
13	Rio Ave	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.6	9
14	Arouca	9	2	3	4	-9	-8.0	9
15	Nacional	8	2	1	5	-5	-4.6	7
16	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-7	-3.3	5
17	Casa Pia	9	0	5	4	-8	-9.7	5
18	AVS	10	0	3	7	-12	-7.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	10	10	0	0	+19	+11.7	30
2	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+15	+8.0	23
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+14	+11.8	23
4	Sp Braga	10	4	4	2	+7	+6.5	16
5	Famalicao	9	4	3	2	+2	+3.3	15
6	Gil Vicente	9	3	5	1	+6	+1.7	14
7	Moreirense	10	3	2	5	-3	-4.2	11
8	Rio Ave	9	2	5	2	-4	-8.7	11
9	Nacional	10	2	4	4	-1	-2.9	10
10	Guimaraes	8	3	1	4	-5	-1.7	10
11	Casa Pia	10	3	1	6	-10	-8.8	10
12	Estrela	8	2	3	3	-5	-7.8	9
13	Estoril	9	2	2	5	-1	-2.3	8
14	Arouca	9	2	2	5	-14	-10.5	8
15	Alverca	8	2	1	5	-4	-4.5	7
16	Tondela	9	2	1	6	-11	-3.1	7
17	Santa Clara	9	1	3	5	-6	-1.7	6
18	AVS	9	0	2	7	-21	-9.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.