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Primeira Liga

Referee: H Malheiro

Sp Lisbon

S U S S S

6–0

Full-time

Arouca

T U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

2,5

1,5

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

2,0

3,0

Conceded

0,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,86 xG 0,22

57% Possession 43%

19 Shots 7

10 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 7. · Arouca 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.3	6
2	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.6	6
3	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.8	6
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.1	3
5	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.0	3
6	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
7	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.4	3
8	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
9	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
10	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.2	3
11	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
12	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
13	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
14	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.4	1
15	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	+1.0	0
16	AVS	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.2	0
17	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.5	0
18	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.7	3
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.1	3
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.0	3
5	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
6	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
7	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
8	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
9	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
10	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
11	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
12	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
13	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.4	0
14	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
15	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.9	3
2	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
3	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.4	3
4	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
5	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
6	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
8	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
9	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
10	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
11	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
12	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.0	0
13	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
14	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.1	0
15	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.