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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Arouca

S S T S S

0–3

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

U U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

4,2

3,3

Scored

3,0

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/23 matches

Win Ø 63%

42%

83%

Points per game

1,4

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

63%

74%

Both score Ø 58%

54%

61%

Average goals

3,2

3,9

Scored

1,8

2,9

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,54 xG 2,27

62% Possession 38%

10 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 0

1 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 7. · Sp Lisbon 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	23	19	2	2	+42	+29.7	59
2	Benfica	24	18	4	2	+36	+27.8	58
3	Porto	25	17	4	4	+29	+22.0	55
4	Sp Braga	25	15	5	5	+20	+17.2	50
5	Guimaraes	25	14	5	6	+13	+6.8	47
6	Moreirense	25	11	6	8	+0	+0.3	39
7	Arouca	24	10	4	10	+10	+0.9	34
8	Boavista	25	7	7	11	-13	-10.8	28
9	Gil Vicente	24	7	6	11	-3	-8.7	27
10	Famalicao	24	6	9	9	-6	-7.7	27
11	Casa Pia	25	7	6	12	-15	-9.5	27
12	Farense	25	7	5	13	-4	-9.8	26
13	Estrela	25	6	7	12	-13	-8.5	25
14	Rio Ave	25	4	12	9	-9	+1.2	24
15	Portimonense	25	6	5	14	-28	-18.2	23
16	Estoril	24	6	4	14	-6	-9.2	22
17	Vizela	25	4	9	12	-23	-9.0	21
18	Chaves	24	4	6	14	-30	-14.5	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	12	0	0	+31	+20.2	36
2	Benfica	12	10	2	0	+28	+20.8	32
3	Porto	12	9	2	1	+19	+17.4	29
4	Guimaraes	13	9	1	3	+12	+10.5	28
5	Sp Braga	12	7	3	2	+14	+18.9	24
6	Gil Vicente	12	5	5	2	+9	-5.0	20
7	Rio Ave	13	4	6	3	+1	+5.1	18
8	Moreirense	12	5	3	4	+0	+0.6	18
9	Arouca	12	5	2	5	+3	+0.2	17
10	Estrela	13	5	2	6	-2	-2.5	17
11	Estoril	12	5	1	6	+6	+1.1	16
12	Famalicao	11	4	4	3	-1	-1.2	16
13	Boavista	13	4	4	5	-9	-3.8	16
14	Farense	12	4	3	5	+2	+0.2	15
15	Portimonense	13	3	4	6	-9	-6.6	13
16	Chaves	12	3	3	6	-10	-3.7	12
17	Casa Pia	12	2	4	6	-7	-1.9	10
18	Vizela	13	2	4	7	-11	-1.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	13	8	2	3	+10	+4.6	26
2	Benfica	12	8	2	2	+8	+7.0	26
3	Sp Braga	13	8	2	3	+6	-1.6	26
4	Sp Lisbon	11	7	2	2	+11	+9.5	23
5	Moreirense	13	6	3	4	+0	-0.4	21
6	Guimaraes	12	5	4	3	+1	-3.7	19
7	Arouca	12	5	2	5	+7	+0.8	17
8	Casa Pia	13	5	2	6	-8	-7.7	17
9	Boavista	12	3	3	6	-4	-7.0	12
10	Famalicao	13	2	5	6	-5	-6.5	11
11	Farense	13	3	2	8	-6	-10.0	11
12	Vizela	12	2	5	5	-12	-7.8	11
13	Portimonense	12	3	1	8	-19	-11.6	10
14	Estrela	12	1	5	6	-11	-6.0	8
15	Gil Vicente	12	2	1	9	-12	-3.7	7
16	Rio Ave	12	0	6	6	-10	-3.9	6
17	Estoril	12	1	3	8	-12	-10.3	6
18	Chaves	12	1	3	8	-20	-10.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.