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Primeira Liga

Referee: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso

Arouca

T U S S S

4–0

Full-time

Moreirense

T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,0

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,24 xG 0,50

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 7. · Moreirense 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
2	Nacional	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
3	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
4	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
5	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
6	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
7	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
8	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
9	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
10	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
11	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
12	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
13	Academico Viseu	2	0	1	1	-1	-3.1	1
14	Alverca	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.4	1
15	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.6	1
16	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.9	0
18	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
2	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
3	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
4	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
5	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
6	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
7	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
8	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
9	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
10	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
11	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
12	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.8	0
13	Academico Viseu	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
14	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
2	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
3	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
4	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
5	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.4	1
6	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
7	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
8	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
9	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
10	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
11	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
12	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
13	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
14	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.