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Ligue 1
Referee: Aurelien Petit
Le Mans
U S U U S
2–2
Full-time
Brest
U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Le Mans Brest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
2,0
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
1,8
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
0,3
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,67 xG 2,72
50% Possession 50%
8 Shots 26
5 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 10
3 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Le Mans Brest
31′
⚽ Romain Del Castillo 0–1
Kamory Doumbia
43′
🟨 Ludovic Ajorque
Half-time 1–1
1–1 Dame Gueye ⚽
Louis Mafouta
47′
Alexandre Lauray 🟨
51′
2–1 Louis Mafouta ⚽
Adil Bourabaa
55′
62′
⚽ Kamory Doumbia 2–2
Erwan Colas 🔁
↦ Louis Mafouta
63′
Lucas Bretelle 🔁
↦ Alexandre Lauray
63′
63′
🔁 Mamady Diambou
↦ Joseph Nonge
71′
🔁 Axel Camblan
↦ Pathé Mboup
71′
🔁 Mama Baldé
↦ Romain Del Castillo
William Harhouz 🔁
↦ Dame Gueye
72′
Billal Brahimi 🔁
↦ Adil Bourabaa
72′
Lucas Calodat 🔁
↦ Yasser Larouci
81′
89′
🔁 Mathis Lainé
↦ Kamory Doumbia
Full-time 2–2

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,51
🔒
U ✓
3,39
🔒
B
2,69
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,84
🔒
U2,5
1,90
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.