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Ligue 1
Referee: Azzedine Souifi
Lorient
T U S T U
1–2
Full-time
Troyes
S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Troyes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
2,8
2,0
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
1,2
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
1,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
0,0
0,0
Scored
0,0
0,0
Conceded
0,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,15 xG 2,12
67% Possession 33%
15 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 4
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 5
0 Offside 3
9 Free kicks against 11
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lorient 12. · Troyes 13.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Lille 2 1 1 0 +2 -0.9 4
2 Marseille 1 1 0 0 +4 +1.7 3
3 Lens 2 1 0 1 +2 +3.7 3
4 Lyon 1 1 0 0 +2 -2.1 3
5 Monaco 1 1 0 0 +1 +0.8 3
6 Strasbourg 2 1 0 1 -3 -2.8 3
7 Paris SG 2 0 2 0 +0 +1.5 2
8 Rennes 1 0 1 0 +0 -1.3 1
9 Le Mans 1 0 1 0 +0 -2.1 1
10 Brest 1 0 1 0 +0 +2.1 1
11 Nice 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.2 1
12 Lorient 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.2 1
13 Troyes 1 0 1 0 +0 -1.4 1
14 Paris FC 1 0 1 0 +0 +1.4 1
15 Le Havre 1 0 0 1 -1 -0.8 0
16 Angers 1 0 0 1 -2 +0.8 0
17 Toulouse 1 0 0 1 -2 +2.1 0
18 Auxerre 1 0 0 1 -3 -2.6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lorient Troyes
26′
ℹ️ Antoine Mille
VAR: Penalty confirmed
29′
Renaud Ripart 0–1
38′
Lucas Maronnier 0–2
Antoine Mille
Half-time 1–2
1–2 Jean Victor Makengo
51′
Isak Steiner Jensen 🔁
↦ Gabin Bernardeau
66′
Aiyegun Tosin 🔁
↦ Mamadou Koné
66′
67′
🔁 Kandet Diawara
↦ Hugo Picard
Souleymane Faye 🔁
↦ Théo Le Bris
73′
Panos Katseris 🔁
↦ Jean Victor Makengo
73′
78′
🔁 Karim Dermane
↦ Antoine Mille
Noah Mbamba 🔁
↦ Noah Cadiou
84′
85′
🔁 Alexandre Phliponeau
↦ Iron Gomis
86′
🔁 Noah Donkor
↦ Lucas Maronnier
86′
🔁 Yacouba Kone
↦ Renaud Ripart
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Lorient

3-4-2-1
38 Yvon Mvogo G
20 Dembo Sylla D
3 Montassar Talbi D
32 Nathaniel Adjei D
11 Théo Le Bris M
62 Arthur Avom Ebong M
8 Noah Cadiou M
43 Arsène Kouassi M
33 Gabin Bernardeau F
17 Jean Victor Makengo F
42 Mamadou Koné F
Bench (9)
10 Isak Steiner Jensen
15 Aiyegun Tosin
77 Panos Katseris
19 Souleymane Faye
72 Noah Mbamba
21 Bingourou Kamara
55 Nosa Edward Obaretin
95 Isaak Touré
2 Alec Georgen

Coach: Alexandre Dujeux

Troyes

4-2-3-1
33 Patrick Beach G
2 Lucas Maronnier D
6 Adrien Monfray D
4 Michel Diaz D
3 Anis Ouzenadji D
17 Antoine Mille M
8 Mouhamed Diop M
10 Merwan Ifnaoui M
11 Iron Gomis M
22 Hugo Picard M
20 Renaud Ripart F
Bench (9)
7 Kandet Diawara
29 Karim Dermane
26 Alexandre Phliponeau
31 Noah Donkor
39 Yacouba Kone
40 Hillel Konaté
5 Paolo Gozzi
36 Idrissa Soukouna
37 Christ Batola

Coach: Stephane Dumont

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,84
U
3,50
B ✓
4,17
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,99
U2,5
1,76
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Azzedine Souifi · 10 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
31,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.