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Premier League
Referee: Peter Bankes
Brighton
T S T T U
4–0
Full-time
Aston Villa
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Aston Villa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
2,3
3,8
Scored
1,2
2,7
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

3,77 xG 0,29
73% Possession 27%
21 Shots 6
6 Shots on target 0
3 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 2
6 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

11. Feb -26 Aston Villa – Brighton 1–0 3. Dec -25 Brighton – Aston Villa 3–4 2. Apr -25 Brighton – Aston Villa 0–3 30. Dec -24 Aston Villa – Brighton 2–2 5. May -24 Brighton – Aston Villa 1–0

Match report

Brighton Aston Villa
0–1 V. Lindelof ⚽
own goal
8′
9′
🟨 João Gomes
Pascal Groß 🟨
10′
Yasin Ayari 🟨
11′
1–1 M. De Cuyper ⚽
G. Rutter
18′
2–1 J. Hinshelwood ⚽
D. Gomez
30′
3–1 J. Hinshelwood ⚽
31′
33′
🟨 John McGinn
39′
ℹ️ João Gomes
VAR: Card upgrade
40′
🟥 João Gomes
Half-time 3–1
Costinha 🔁
↦ Y. Ayari
64′
C. Kostoulas 🔁
↦ J. Hinshelwood
64′
74′
🔁 T. Mings
↦ P. Torres
74′
🔁 L. Bogarde
↦ R. Barkley
I. Osman 🔁
↦ M. De Cuyper
78′
Z. Yohanna 🔁
↦ M. Wieffer
78′
82′
🔁 M. Ruggeri
↦ I. Maatsen
82′
🔁 Alysson
↦ J. McGinn
M. Yalcouye 🔁
↦ D. Gomez
86′
86′
🔁 A. Garnacho
↦ E. Buendia
95′
🟨 Matty Cash
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Brighton

4-2-3-1
1 B. Verbruggen G
27 M. Wieffer D
44 L. Vuskovic D
5 L. Dunk D
21 O. Boscagli D
13 P. Gross M
26 Y. Ayari M
25 D. Gomez M
8 J. Hinshelwood M
29 M. De Cuyper M
10 G. Rutter F
Bench (9)
23 J. Steele
30 M. Svoboda
20 Costinha
4 P. Struijk
35 M. Yalcouye
19 C. Kostoulas
12 P. David
15 I. Osman
36 Z. Yohanna

Coach: Fabian Hurzeler

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
40 M. Bizot G
2 M. Cash D
3 V. Lindelof D
14 P. Torres D
22 I. Maatsen D
8 B. Kamara M
35 Joao Gomes M
7 J. McGinn M
6 R. Barkley M
53 G. Hemmings M
10 E. Buendia F
Bench (9)
1 Z. Suzuki
5 T. Mings
13 M. Ruggeri
26 L. Bogarde
45 T. Rowe
74 L. Lynch
49 B. Burrowes
17 A. Garnacho
47 Alysson

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,19
🔒
U
3,54
🔒
B
3,08
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,66
🔒
U2,5
2,15
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Peter Bankes · 118 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.